For the 21st consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Tampa Bay Rays.

Batters

Coming off a 99-win season, the Rays shed 19 games last year to finish at 80-82, their first losing record since 2017. While certainly some of that loss can be chalked up to Wander Franco’s troubling legal issues, which have likely brought an end to his baseball career, a blend of injuries and few pleasant surprises also played a big part in the Rays’ dropping out of solid contention. Two-thirds of last year’s projected starters, both in the lineup and the rotation, are gone, making this season a bit of a transition for Tampa Bay.

For a team that doesn’t spend money practically ever, and coming off a bloodbath of trades of youngish veterans, one could call the lineup projections surprisingly good. There are only a few positions that project to be below average, and even those spots aren’t disasters; in fact, every position on the team projects for more than 1 WAR. That’s a testament to the team’s player development system, which has to continually restock the shelves year after year because the organization doesn’t have enough money in the budget to bring in established talent through free agency.

Even so, the best parts of this lineup are rather uninspiring. ZiPS projects the Rays to get at least 3 WAR from only one position, second base, but I’m more skeptical than the Depth Charts are about Brandon Lowe’s ability to stay healthy. In the outfield, ZiPS doesn’t think Jonny DeLuca’s defense will be enough to make up for his bat, and it believes that Christopher Morel is best suited as a DH, where he may have the best chance to live up to his power potential.

But it’s not all bad. ZiPS does like some Rays players, just not the ones on the top of the depth chart – yet. Four of the top-eight WAR projections on offense are players who have not yet seized the primary jobs at their positions. Carson Williams is hardly unexpected, of course, given that he’s a top-five prospect. ZiPS thinks his bat is already acceptable for a starter in the middle infield, and the coordinate-based defensive system I use for the minor leagues thought he was one of the best fielding shortstops in the minors. He’s not the only minor leaguer to get defensive plaudits from ZiPS; third baseman Brayden Taylor also appears to be elite with the leather. He’s not as big a name as Williams, but my colleague Eric Longenhagen gave him a 45/70 evaluation for defense last year, and the Rays have liked his glove enough to give him some run at shortstop, something you don’t do with your third baseman if you think he’s a butcher. Going well down the prospect lists, catcher Dominic Keegan and center fielder Chandler Simpson also get very promising projections.

Sum it all up and the Rays have a solid offense with a lot of depth and a real future, but I’m not sure the upside will be realized this season.

Pitchers

When you compare the innings pitched in the ZiPS projections and the ones listed on our Depth Charts, one conclusion I think you should draw is that the Rays are very reliant on getting healthy innings from Shane McClanahan and Drew Rasmussen. The projections gauge the two as the most talented pitchers on the team right now, so it’s understandable that the Rays would struggle if they’re without McClanahan for the entire season and Rasmussen for most of it due to their respective major elbow surgeries.

That’s not to say ZiPS hates the rest of the rotation, just that McClanahan and Rasmussen would change the whole complexion of the staff. Ryan Pepiot was the odd man out in Los Angeles, but he thrived as a solid no. 2 or 3 starter with the Rays, who just stuck him in the rotation and left him there. Taj Bradley showed great progress from his rookie season, getting hit a lot less hard last year, and Zack Littell showed that Tampa hasn’t lost its touch for taking other teams’ castoffs and transmogrifying them into above-average starters, almost instantly.

A surprising number of other pitchers project to be about league average as starters: Shane Baz, Joe Rock, Mason Montgomery, and Mike Vasil. A few of these guys will likely see some significant bullpen innings, especially Montgomery.

The Rays don’t have the high-end bullpen arms that the Twins or Guardians do, at least not according to ZiPS, but they do still have is an impressive amount of relief pitching depth. The majority of the bullpen projects to be better than average, but only Kevin Kelly and Pete Fairbanks do by a large margin, with the computer not being all that high on Edwin Uceta. If the projections prove accurate, this is a solid bullpen, but it’s probably not going to make or break their chances of reaching the postseason.

The Rays are a good team, but they likely aren’t a great one. ZiPS projects them to finish with 84-88 wins, enough to put them back into contention, but perhaps not enough to actually make the playoffs.

Ballpark graphic is Dan’s mockup of George M. Steinbrenner Field. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Charts playing time. The final team projections may differ considerably from our Depth Charts playing time.

Batters – Standard

Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS Carson Williams R 22 SS 530 476 70 109 20 4 18 71 43 176 17 8 Brandon Lowe L 30 2B 443 393 60 95 20 1 21 65 42 116 5 1 Yandy Díaz R 33 1B 566 501 64 143 28 0 14 66 57 83 0 1 Brayden Taylor L 23 3B 500 444 67 95 24 5 16 61 51 166 14 4 Josh Lowe L 27 RF 480 436 58 114 26 2 15 60 40 143 24 1 Jonathan Aranda L 27 1B 441 385 60 100 18 1 15 59 43 110 1 1 Dominic Keegan R 24 C 442 394 48 96 20 2 9 51 36 105 0 0 Chandler Simpson L 24 CF 513 469 75 137 17 2 1 43 32 54 52 11 Curtis Mead R 24 3B 500 454 58 117 26 2 11 61 32 91 7 3 Junior Caminero R 21 3B 495 459 57 118 18 2 20 71 30 106 3 2 Danny Jansen R 30 C 316 275 39 61 14 0 13 38 33 63 0 0 Kameron Misner L 27 CF 511 448 61 94 23 2 12 57 56 173 17 4 Coco Montes R 28 2B 436 393 50 94 21 3 10 50 36 117 5 3 José Caballero R 28 SS 419 371 50 83 18 1 9 42 31 106 37 12 Jake Mangum B 29 CF 424 397 50 107 23 4 4 48 18 82 12 5 Logan Driscoll L 27 C 346 315 38 75 17 1 6 40 22 86 1 1 Tre’ Morgan L 22 1B 460 417 61 113 21 1 8 55 35 62 10 5 Bob Seymour L 26 1B 466 426 58 105 20 1 18 65 33 154 3 0 Dylan Carlson B 26 LF 396 346 42 82 18 2 8 42 38 92 3 1 Richie Palacios L 28 2B 414 357 53 85 18 2 6 42 47 74 14 2 Christopher Morel R 26 3B 583 519 72 120 21 3 25 79 54 161 9 5 Jonny DeLuca R 26 RF 412 374 46 86 18 3 12 48 30 83 13 3 Tanner Murray R 25 2B 404 383 45 98 25 2 6 46 16 81 2 1 Dru Baker R 25 LF 461 424 52 111 14 3 4 44 27 114 23 6 Kenny Piper R 26 C 343 305 39 57 12 1 10 41 26 108 3 0 Ricardo Genovés R 26 C 305 275 31 57 14 0 7 34 23 96 1 0 Taylor Walls B 28 SS 366 320 45 66 14 2 6 31 43 91 17 4 Matthew Etzel L 23 LF 474 432 55 107 19 4 9 52 33 126 24 8 Eloy Jiménez R 28 DH 413 381 38 99 18 0 13 49 28 84 2 0 Ben Rortvedt L 27 C 298 264 28 57 12 0 5 30 29 81 1 0 Osleivis Basabe R 24 SS 440 408 46 102 18 3 4 44 24 73 8 4 Tristan Peters L 25 RF 481 430 59 100 20 4 8 49 43 99 8 5 Homer Bush R 23 CF 446 401 53 91 13 1 5 46 27 103 27 8 Yu Chang R 29 SS 192 174 21 40 8 1 5 24 13 56 2 1 Ronny Simon B 25 2B 519 473 60 110 22 3 9 55 35 111 14 6 C.J. Hinojosa R 30 SS 401 373 39 88 18 1 6 42 20 79 3 2 Cooper Kinney L 22 2B 432 403 43 93 20 1 8 46 24 113 3 2 Tatem Levins L 26 C 303 276 29 55 10 0 7 32 21 83 0 0 Will Simpson R 23 1B 530 478 56 110 25 2 14 62 47 167 3 2 Xavier Isaac L 21 1B 456 408 56 92 20 2 15 58 41 158 7 1 Rob Brantly L 35 C 207 187 20 45 8 1 3 23 11 40 0 0 Colton Ledbetter L 23 RF 442 407 48 88 20 3 11 52 26 145 16 5 Heriberto Hernandez R 25 LF 461 405 55 87 19 1 15 58 45 148 3 1 Ryan Cermak R 24 CF 209 188 22 36 6 1 4 23 15 74 6 1 Noah Myers L 25 RF 366 315 40 64 14 1 5 33 42 110 17 3 Mac Horvath R 23 3B 466 425 52 85 22 2 10 50 32 140 18 1 Gregory Barrios R 21 SS 474 443 48 101 19 2 1 39 20 74 18 6 Matthew Dyer R 26 RF 201 183 22 38 7 2 3 20 14 82 4 1 Bryan Broecker R 23 C 197 172 14 27 4 0 1 12 20 73 5 1 Brock Jones L 24 RF 379 342 40 64 16 2 11 43 31 163 12 4 Blake Robertson L 24 1B 159 145 16 29 6 1 4 17 11 63 3 0 Kamren James R 25 C 298 272 29 55 9 1 6 35 13 99 3 3 Mason Auer R 24 RF 446 408 45 83 16 5 7 44 28 143 21 7 Angel Galarraga L 22 C 97 86 5 16 4 0 1 7 6 28 0 0 Elis Barreat R 22 2B 99 95 6 20 2 1 1 7 3 27 1 2 Raudelis Martinez L 23 C 323 292 28 53 9 1 3 25 21 58 4 1 Jalen Battles R 25 2B 313 292 33 60 9 1 2 25 16 93 3 2 Gionti Turner R 24 2B 214 194 19 37 5 1 1 17 12 70 5 3 Willy Vasquez R 23 3B 444 417 40 87 16 3 7 41 23 145 8 5 Hunter Haas R 23 SS 408 367 29 65 16 1 5 34 26 129 5 3 Jhon Diaz R 20 2B 285 259 30 51 11 2 3 27 16 82 3 4 Ryan Spikes R 22 LF 420 387 40 75 12 2 7 39 22 152 9 4

Batters – Advanced

Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA 3YOPS+ RC Carson Williams 530 .229 .302 .401 96 .172 .322 7 2.7 .306 103 64 Brandon Lowe 443 .242 .323 .458 117 .216 .289 -1 2.4 .337 111 59 Yandy Díaz 566 .285 .362 .425 121 .140 .319 -1 2.2 .345 115 78 Brayden Taylor 500 .214 .297 .399 93 .185 .302 7 2.2 .303 98 57 Josh Lowe 480 .261 .323 .433 110 .172 .356 3 2.1 .325 109 66 Jonathan Aranda 441 .260 .345 .428 116 .169 .327 3 1.9 .337 115 57 Dominic Keegan 442 .244 .312 .373 92 .129 .311 3 1.9 .300 95 46 Chandler Simpson 513 .292 .338 .343 93 .051 .328 -2 1.8 .302 92 70 Curtis Mead 500 .258 .318 .397 100 .139 .302 1 1.8 .312 100 60 Junior Caminero 495 .257 .307 .435 106 .178 .294 -2 1.7 .319 109 63 Danny Jansen 316 .221 .313 .414 103 .192 .241 0 1.6 .318 99 36 Kameron Misner 511 .210 .302 .350 83 .141 .311 5 1.6 .290 85 52 Coco Montes 436 .239 .307 .384 93 .145 .316 3 1.5 .303 93 49 José Caballero 419 .224 .302 .350 83 .127 .289 2 1.5 .289 84 52 Jake Mangum 424 .269 .309 .377 92 .108 .331 3 1.3 .300 90 51 Logan Driscoll 346 .238 .298 .355 83 .117 .309 4 1.3 .287 83 34 Tre’ Morgan 460 .271 .335 .384 102 .113 .303 2 1.1 .317 105 58 Bob Seymour 466 .246 .305 .425 102 .178 .342 2 1.0 .315 104 56 Dylan Carlson 396 .237 .323 .370 95 .133 .301 4 1.0 .307 95 42 Richie Palacios 414 .238 .335 .350 93 .112 .285 -5 1.0 .306 93 46 Christopher Morel 583 .231 .309 .428 105 .197 .286 -13 0.9 .319 107 73 Jonny DeLuca 412 .230 .297 .391 92 .161 .266 5 0.9 .300 95 47 Tanner Murray 404 .256 .292 .379 87 .123 .311 2 0.9 .292 88 43 Dru Baker 461 .262 .314 .337 84 .075 .349 6 0.8 .290 83 52 Kenny Piper 343 .187 .268 .331 68 .144 .251 5 0.8 .267 70 28 Ricardo Genovés 305 .207 .279 .335 72 .127 .291 3 0.7 .273 74 26 Taylor Walls 366 .207 .301 .319 75 .113 .270 -1 0.7 .280 76 36 Matthew Etzel 474 .248 .304 .373 89 .125 .330 3 0.7 .295 92 57 Eloy Jiménez 413 .260 .312 .410 101 .150 .303 0 0.6 .313 100 49 Ben Rortvedt 298 .216 .302 .318 75 .102 .292 0 0.5 .280 77 26 Osleivis Basabe 440 .250 .296 .338 78 .088 .296 -2 0.4 .280 81 44 Tristan Peters 481 .233 .308 .354 86 .121 .285 4 0.4 .293 88 51 Homer Bush 446 .227 .295 .302 69 .075 .294 2 0.4 .270 73 44 Yu Chang 192 .229 .293 .373 86 .143 .309 -2 0.3 .290 86 20 Ronny Simon 519 .233 .289 .349 79 .116 .286 -2 0.3 .281 82 53 C.J. Hinojosa 401 .236 .279 .338 73 .102 .285 0 0.3 .270 72 36 Cooper Kinney 432 .231 .278 .345 74 .114 .302 1 0.2 .273 78 40 Tatem Levins 303 .199 .264 .312 61 .112 .258 3 0.2 .256 63 23 Will Simpson 530 .230 .298 .379 89 .149 .324 2 0.2 .296 93 55 Xavier Isaac 456 .225 .300 .395 94 .169 .328 -2 0.2 .304 101 50 Rob Brantly 207 .241 .309 .343 84 .102 .292 -4 0.1 .291 78 20 Colton Ledbetter 442 .216 .269 .361 75 .145 .307 5 0.1 .275 82 45 Heriberto Hernandez 461 .215 .301 .378 89 .163 .297 -3 0.0 .298 93 47 Ryan Cermak 209 .192 .268 .298 59 .106 .291 2 0.0 .255 67 17 Noah Myers 366 .203 .299 .302 70 .099 .296 2 -0.1 .273 72 33 Mac Horvath 466 .200 .260 .332 65 .132 .273 0 -0.1 .260 72 41 Gregory Barrios 474 .228 .268 .286 56 .059 .272 4 -0.1 .246 59 40 Matthew Dyer 201 .208 .275 .317 66 .109 .358 2 -0.2 .264 68 17 Bryan Broecker 197 .157 .256 .198 31 .041 .266 4 -0.2 .217 32 10 Brock Jones 379 .187 .261 .342 68 .155 .315 4 -0.2 .266 75 35 Blake Robertson 159 .200 .264 .338 68 .138 .321 0 -0.3 .265 68 14 Kamren James 298 .202 .260 .308 59 .106 .293 -4 -0.5 .253 62 24 Mason Auer 446 .203 .263 .319 63 .115 .295 5 -0.5 .257 67 41 Angel Galarraga 97 .187 .246 .268 45 .082 .264 -3 -0.5 .231 46 6 Elis Barreat 99 .211 .242 .285 48 .074 .285 -2 -0.6 .233 48 8 Raudelis Martinez 323 .181 .242 .250 39 .068 .216 1 -0.8 .223 44 19 Jalen Battles 313 .206 .253 .264 46 .058 .295 2 -0.8 .233 51 21 Gionti Turner 214 .191 .255 .242 41 .052 .293 -1 -0.9 .228 45 14 Willy Vasquez 444 .209 .253 .312 58 .103 .302 -1 -1.0 .248 63 37 Hunter Haas 408 .177 .243 .267 44 .090 .257 -1 -1.2 .230 46 26 Jhon Diaz 285 .197 .255 .290 53 .093 .276 -7 -1.4 .243 61 21 Ryan Spikes 420 .194 .245 .289 50 .096 .298 4 -1.4 .237 57 31

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles

Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR Carson Williams .262 .332 .457 119 4.1 .205 .276 .343 74 1.2 Brandon Lowe .266 .347 .514 137 3.6 .218 .300 .405 96 1.3 Yandy Díaz .312 .391 .467 138 3.4 .257 .338 .386 104 1.0 Brayden Taylor .246 .327 .457 118 3.5 .188 .270 .340 70 0.7 Josh Lowe .293 .356 .488 134 3.5 .231 .294 .385 91 0.9 Jonathan Aranda .288 .369 .483 136 3.0 .232 .314 .385 99 0.9 Dominic Keegan .272 .337 .427 113 3.0 .218 .286 .333 76 1.0 Chandler Simpson .321 .367 .376 110 3.1 .262 .311 .308 75 0.6 Curtis Mead .283 .345 .444 119 2.9 .234 .295 .354 83 0.7 Junior Caminero .286 .335 .498 129 3.2 .232 .281 .385 84 0.4 Danny Jansen .244 .338 .467 122 2.3 .196 .288 .363 83 0.8 Kameron Misner .233 .327 .400 102 2.6 .182 .274 .305 65 0.4 Coco Montes .266 .333 .435 112 2.5 .209 .276 .336 71 0.3 José Caballero .249 .329 .408 104 2.6 .195 .273 .303 63 0.3 Jake Mangum .301 .341 .424 112 2.4 .242 .281 .338 74 0.3 Logan Driscoll .268 .328 .403 104 2.2 .209 .273 .312 64 0.5 Tre’ Morgan .298 .362 .429 120 2.0 .245 .309 .347 85 0.1 Bob Seymour .273 .330 .481 125 2.3 .216 .277 .376 83 -0.2 Dylan Carlson .266 .351 .423 116 1.9 .209 .296 .326 77 0.1 Richie Palacios .265 .363 .398 113 1.9 .211 .306 .309 75 0.1 Christopher Morel .257 .332 .482 123 2.3 .210 .283 .373 84 -0.5 Jonny DeLuca .257 .322 .445 112 1.9 .204 .272 .340 72 -0.1 Tanner Murray .285 .321 .426 107 1.9 .231 .266 .337 68 0.0 Dru Baker .290 .345 .383 103 1.9 .230 .284 .305 66 -0.2 Kenny Piper .212 .295 .385 88 1.6 .161 .239 .282 47 -0.1 Ricardo Genovés .233 .307 .379 90 1.4 .177 .249 .284 51 -0.1 Taylor Walls .234 .330 .367 95 1.6 .179 .276 .274 57 -0.2 Matthew Etzel .271 .327 .423 107 1.7 .217 .277 .326 71 -0.3 Eloy Jiménez .287 .339 .458 121 1.7 .232 .283 .360 82 -0.3 Ben Rortvedt .243 .333 .366 95 1.3 .185 .275 .271 57 -0.1 Osleivis Basabe .275 .324 .383 96 1.4 .226 .274 .306 63 -0.5 Tristan Peters .258 .336 .400 103 1.5 .206 .281 .311 66 -0.7 Homer Bush .255 .321 .340 85 1.4 .202 .270 .268 53 -0.6 Yu Chang .257 .320 .428 106 0.7 .199 .264 .320 65 -0.2 Ronny Simon .258 .312 .390 94 1.3 .209 .265 .311 63 -0.7 C.J. Hinojosa .264 .308 .382 92 1.2 .210 .253 .295 54 -0.7 Cooper Kinney .258 .304 .387 93 1.2 .207 .256 .308 59 -0.6 Tatem Levins .226 .296 .363 82 1.0 .171 .236 .266 43 -0.4 Will Simpson .253 .324 .432 108 1.4 .203 .268 .333 69 -1.1 Xavier Isaac .254 .330 .450 116 1.5 .198 .272 .337 73 -1.1 Rob Brantly .272 .337 .387 104 0.6 .209 .280 .292 64 -0.4 Colton Ledbetter .243 .300 .409 96 1.2 .192 .247 .322 59 -0.8 Heriberto Hernandez .243 .326 .428 109 1.1 .187 .271 .320 67 -1.2 Ryan Cermak .221 .300 .355 83 0.6 .162 .242 .254 41 -0.5 Noah Myers .234 .331 .344 92 0.8 .175 .269 .259 52 -1.0 Mac Horvath .226 .286 .380 83 1.1 .178 .236 .288 47 -1.1 Gregory Barrios .258 .296 .325 75 1.0 .202 .244 .249 40 -1.1 Matthew Dyer .239 .304 .369 88 0.4 .179 .245 .274 46 -0.7 Bryan Broecker .186 .289 .233 47 0.3 .129 .226 .163 15 -0.6 Brock Jones .216 .289 .389 89 0.8 .157 .234 .285 46 -1.2 Blake Robertson .231 .292 .386 87 0.1 .173 .235 .289 49 -0.7 Kamren James .231 .289 .363 83 0.3 .172 .235 .260 41 -1.2 Mason Auer .233 .289 .363 82 0.5 .178 .241 .279 46 -1.5 Angel Galarraga .219 .277 .321 68 -0.3 .156 .213 .225 24 -0.8 Elis Barreat .240 .271 .332 68 -0.3 .180 .213 .247 28 -0.8 Raudelis Martinez .208 .272 .298 59 0.0 .155 .218 .214 22 -1.5 Jalen Battles .232 .283 .298 64 -0.1 .179 .228 .228 29 -1.4 Gionti Turner .217 .283 .277 58 -0.4 .162 .230 .210 24 -1.3 Willy Vasquez .235 .278 .351 74 -0.1 .181 .224 .265 37 -2.2 Hunter Haas .200 .267 .309 62 -0.3 .151 .220 .230 28 -2.0 Jhon Diaz .226 .285 .339 74 -0.7 .169 .229 .243 35 -2.0 Ryan Spikes .225 .276 .334 69 -0.4 .169 .223 .245 33 -2.2

Batters – Platoon Splits

Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R Carson Williams .231 .309 .408 .228 .299 .398 Brandon Lowe .232 .306 .424 .245 .328 .469 Yandy Díaz .299 .377 .461 .280 .355 .409 Brayden Taylor .203 .277 .366 .218 .303 .411 Josh Lowe .248 .305 .411 .267 .330 .443 Jonathan Aranda .244 .329 .382 .268 .353 .453 Dominic Keegan .259 .328 .405 .237 .305 .360 Chandler Simpson .274 .318 .306 .299 .345 .357 Curtis Mead .272 .332 .420 .249 .310 .382 Junior Caminero .270 .327 .475 .252 .298 .418 Danny Jansen .218 .317 .402 .223 .312 .420 Kameron Misner .196 .283 .320 .217 .312 .366 Coco Montes .241 .315 .393 .238 .303 .379 José Caballero .228 .317 .354 .221 .294 .348 Jake Mangum .270 .306 .399 .269 .312 .365 Logan Driscoll .230 .291 .340 .242 .301 .363 Tre’ Morgan .254 .312 .351 .277 .343 .396 Bob Seymour .236 .296 .398 .251 .308 .436 Dylan Carlson .255 .336 .373 .230 .318 .369 Richie Palacios .238 .328 .337 .238 .337 .355 Christopher Morel .235 .321 .457 .230 .304 .415 Jonny DeLuca .238 .313 .401 .225 .286 .383 Tanner Murray .266 .304 .398 .251 .286 .369 Dru Baker .260 .314 .331 .263 .315 .340 Kenny Piper .194 .276 .333 .184 .265 .330 Ricardo Genovés .214 .287 .359 .203 .274 .320 Taylor Walls .218 .304 .347 .201 .299 .306 Matthew Etzel .235 .292 .336 .252 .308 .387 Eloy Jiménez .257 .317 .413 .261 .311 .408 Ben Rortvedt .211 .294 .289 .218 .305 .330 Osleivis Basabe .255 .303 .340 .247 .292 .337 Tristan Peters .224 .296 .322 .237 .314 .369 Homer Bush .227 .298 .311 .227 .294 .298 Yu Chang .238 .304 .381 .225 .287 .369 Ronny Simon .235 .289 .349 .231 .289 .349 C.J. Hinojosa .247 .293 .363 .229 .269 .322 Cooper Kinney .220 .265 .321 .235 .283 .354 Tatem Levins .192 .250 .260 .202 .269 .330 Will Simpson .234 .309 .386 .228 .293 .375 Xavier Isaac .212 .280 .354 .231 .308 .410 Rob Brantly .218 .295 .309 .250 .315 .356 Colton Ledbetter .202 .261 .321 .221 .272 .376 Heriberto Hernandez .217 .311 .406 .214 .295 .363 Ryan Cermak .190 .266 .276 .192 .269 .308 Noah Myers .196 .286 .272 .206 .305 .314 Mac Horvath .208 .273 .352 .197 .254 .323 Gregory Barrios .231 .273 .291 .227 .266 .285 Matthew Dyer .212 .288 .333 .205 .268 .308 Bryan Broecker .158 .273 .175 .157 .246 .209 Brock Jones .176 .247 .318 .191 .266 .350 Blake Robertson .184 .244 .289 .206 .271 .355 Kamren James .198 .253 .309 .204 .264 .309 Mason Auer .210 .272 .326 .200 .259 .315 Angel Galarraga .200 .259 .240 .180 .239 .279 Elis Barreat .226 .250 .258 .203 .239 .297 Raudelis Martinez .179 .235 .244 .182 .246 .252 Jalen Battles .207 .258 .276 .205 .251 .259 Gionti Turner .200 .268 .231 .186 .248 .248 Willy Vasquez .217 .261 .341 .205 .248 .299 Hunter Haas .183 .256 .284 .174 .238 .260 Jhon Diaz .195 .253 .299 .198 .257 .285 Ryan Spikes .198 .252 .298 .192 .241 .286

Pitchers – Standard

Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO Shane McClanahan L 28 8 5 3.25 19 19 110.7 93 40 13 28 118 Drew Rasmussen R 29 6 3 2.93 24 13 76.7 65 25 6 18 75 Ryan Pepiot R 27 8 6 3.87 26 24 121.0 103 52 16 45 128 Taj Bradley R 24 9 9 4.07 27 27 137.0 124 62 19 44 138 Zack Littell R 29 8 7 3.99 30 23 130.7 131 58 19 28 113 Joe Rock L 24 7 7 4.24 24 21 125.3 127 59 16 38 104 Shane Baz R 26 6 5 4.13 22 22 104.7 95 48 13 38 95 Mason Montgomery L 25 4 4 4.17 33 19 103.7 97 48 13 40 99 Mike Vasil R 25 7 8 4.39 26 24 121.0 122 59 15 40 92 Ian Seymour L 26 5 6 4.50 23 23 112.0 108 56 16 40 99 Kevin Kelly R 27 4 3 3.41 64 0 68.7 60 26 6 15 63 Logan Workman R 26 6 8 4.62 25 24 115.0 120 59 17 36 85 Pete Fairbanks R 31 4 2 3.38 47 0 45.3 38 17 4 17 50 Cole Wilcox R 25 6 9 4.76 25 25 117.3 126 62 15 38 75 Jacob Waguespack R 31 4 4 4.31 21 12 71.0 70 34 9 28 66 Tyler Alexander L 30 6 7 4.62 27 12 115.0 120 59 21 24 91 Joe Boyle R 25 5 7 4.60 25 22 90.0 74 46 10 62 103 Edwin Uceta R 27 3 2 3.78 45 1 66.7 55 28 7 25 74 Nathan Wiles R 26 4 4 4.64 30 14 87.3 94 45 12 20 55 Duncan Davitt R 25 6 8 4.89 24 21 108.7 114 59 17 36 82 Manuel Rodríguez R 28 4 4 3.74 56 0 55.3 49 23 5 21 53 Sean Hunley R 25 4 6 4.67 28 14 81.0 86 42 11 20 49 Brendan McKay L 29 2 1 4.43 13 12 44.7 46 22 7 13 38 Richard Lovelady L 29 6 5 3.86 47 1 51.3 49 22 5 14 45 Andrew Wantz R 29 1 2 4.24 30 4 46.7 41 22 6 19 47 Nate Lavender L 25 3 3 3.89 32 1 44.0 35 19 4 22 52 Garrett Cleavinger L 31 5 5 4.00 57 0 54.0 45 24 6 25 63 Trevor Martin R 24 4 7 5.03 25 23 107.3 112 60 18 37 84 Ben Peoples R 24 4 5 4.94 19 18 71.0 72 39 10 35 59 Jake Odorizzi R 35 3 5 4.95 14 14 63.7 69 35 10 24 48 Yoniel Curet R 22 6 8 5.11 25 24 104.0 96 59 14 59 98 Colin Poche L 31 3 4 4.20 55 0 49.3 44 23 7 18 44 Eric Orze R 27 4 3 4.15 40 0 56.3 50 26 7 26 59 Hunter Bigge R 27 2 1 4.14 39 1 41.3 36 19 5 22 47 Trevor Brigden R 29 3 3 4.31 34 1 48.0 46 23 6 18 46 Cole Sulser R 35 3 2 4.37 38 2 45.3 43 22 6 20 43 Joe Record R 30 2 2 4.44 40 3 52.7 53 26 6 26 44 Patrick Wicklander L 25 3 4 5.00 25 9 72.0 78 40 11 29 50 Paul Gervase R 25 3 3 4.30 37 0 46.0 38 22 5 26 52 Joey Gerber R 28 1 2 4.66 24 1 29.0 28 15 4 14 27 Dalton Moats L 30 1 1 4.50 28 0 32.0 32 16 4 12 27 Kyle Whitten R 26 2 4 4.71 31 1 42.0 44 22 6 15 30 Mike Flynn R 28 2 2 4.79 33 1 41.3 39 22 6 16 41 Nate Dahle R 27 3 3 4.63 31 0 46.7 48 24 7 17 38 Erasmo Ramirez R 35 3 4 4.62 41 1 62.3 65 32 10 19 49 Alfredo Zarraga R 24 3 4 4.75 44 1 55.0 53 29 8 27 51 Keyshawn Askew L 25 3 5 4.98 41 3 65.0 61 36 8 33 58 Jack Hartman R 26 2 4 4.95 34 0 40.0 42 22 6 18 32 Joey Krehbiel R 32 3 3 4.91 46 0 47.7 48 26 7 20 36 Haden Erbe R 26 2 4 5.19 25 2 34.7 35 20 6 17 30 Antonio Menendez R 26 3 4 4.83 36 0 54.0 53 29 7 27 45 Austin Vernon R 26 3 4 5.27 34 3 56.3 55 33 9 32 53 Carlos Garcia R 26 2 3 5.36 31 4 50.3 51 30 9 25 42 Jonny Cuevas R 24 3 4 5.27 30 2 54.7 60 32 8 29 34 Dan Hammer R 27 2 3 5.80 26 2 40.3 39 26 6 33 37 Jake Brentz L 30 1 1 6.16 36 0 30.7 28 21 4 27 30

Pitchers – Advanced

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ 3ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR Shane McClanahan 110.7 9.6 2.3 1.1 6.2% 26.2% .279 125 124 3.36 80 2.4 Drew Rasmussen 76.7 8.8 2.1 0.7 5.8% 24.0% .282 139 134 3.02 72 1.8 Ryan Pepiot 121.0 9.5 3.3 1.2 8.9% 25.2% .277 105 105 4.10 95 1.8 Taj Bradley 137.0 9.1 2.9 1.2 7.6% 24.0% .285 100 102 4.02 100 1.8 Zack Littell 130.7 7.8 1.9 1.3 5.1% 20.7% .293 102 102 4.07 98 1.7 Joe Rock 125.3 7.5 2.7 1.1 7.1% 19.4% .297 96 100 4.23 104 1.4 Shane Baz 104.7 8.2 3.3 1.1 8.5% 21.3% .279 99 100 4.24 101 1.3 Mason Montgomery 103.7 8.6 3.5 1.1 9.0% 22.3% .291 98 101 4.20 102 1.1 Mike Vasil 121.0 6.8 3.0 1.1 7.6% 17.6% .290 93 96 4.46 108 1.1 Ian Seymour 112.0 8.0 3.2 1.3 8.4% 20.7% .287 91 94 4.61 110 1.0 Kevin Kelly 68.7 8.3 2.0 0.8 5.4% 22.7% .281 120 120 3.48 84 0.9 Logan Workman 115.0 6.7 2.8 1.3 7.3% 17.2% .291 88 92 4.69 113 0.8 Pete Fairbanks 45.3 9.9 3.4 0.8 8.9% 26.0% .291 121 116 3.31 83 0.7 Cole Wilcox 117.3 5.8 2.9 1.2 7.4% 14.6% .293 86 89 4.74 117 0.7 Jacob Waguespack 71.0 8.4 3.5 1.1 9.1% 21.4% .300 95 91 4.32 106 0.6 Tyler Alexander 115.0 7.1 1.9 1.6 5.0% 19.0% .288 88 87 4.70 113 0.6 Joe Boyle 90.0 10.3 6.2 1.0 15.0% 25.0% .284 89 93 4.60 113 0.6 Edwin Uceta 66.7 10.0 3.4 0.9 9.0% 26.7% .282 108 109 3.63 93 0.6 Nathan Wiles 87.3 5.7 2.1 1.2 5.4% 14.8% .291 88 91 4.53 114 0.5 Duncan Davitt 108.7 6.8 3.0 1.4 7.6% 17.3% .291 83 88 4.89 120 0.5 Manuel Rodríguez 55.3 8.6 3.4 0.8 8.9% 22.6% .288 109 109 3.85 92 0.5 Sean Hunley 81.0 5.4 2.2 1.2 5.8% 14.3% .286 87 91 4.73 114 0.5 Brendan McKay 44.7 7.7 2.6 1.4 6.8% 19.8% .295 92 91 4.45 109 0.4 Richard Lovelady 51.3 7.9 2.5 0.9 6.5% 21.0% .295 106 105 3.68 95 0.4 Andrew Wantz 46.7 9.1 3.7 1.2 9.5% 23.6% .280 96 97 4.19 104 0.3 Nate Lavender 44.0 10.6 4.5 0.8 11.7% 27.7% .287 105 110 3.77 95 0.3 Garrett Cleavinger 54.0 10.5 4.2 1.0 10.8% 27.3% .289 102 100 3.96 98 0.3 Trevor Martin 107.3 7.0 3.1 1.5 7.9% 18.0% .290 81 87 5.02 123 0.3 Ben Peoples 71.0 7.5 4.4 1.3 11.0% 18.6% .294 83 89 4.95 121 0.3 Jake Odorizzi 63.7 6.8 3.4 1.4 8.6% 17.1% .299 82 76 4.94 121 0.2 Yoniel Curet 104.0 8.5 5.1 1.2 12.5% 20.8% .284 80 86 5.15 125 0.2 Colin Poche 49.3 8.0 3.3 1.3 8.6% 21.1% .270 97 98 4.39 103 0.2 Eric Orze 56.3 9.4 4.2 1.1 10.7% 24.2% .289 98 101 4.24 102 0.2 Hunter Bigge 41.3 10.2 4.8 1.1 12.0% 25.5% .295 99 100 4.15 101 0.1 Trevor Brigden 48.0 8.6 3.4 1.1 8.7% 22.3% .296 95 96 4.14 106 0.1 Cole Sulser 45.3 8.5 4.0 1.2 10.2% 21.8% .291 93 85 4.33 107 0.1 Joe Record 52.7 7.5 4.4 1.0 10.9% 18.5% .299 92 90 4.58 109 0.1 Patrick Wicklander 72.0 6.3 3.6 1.4 9.0% 15.5% .295 82 86 5.15 123 0.1 Paul Gervase 46.0 10.2 5.1 1.0 12.7% 25.4% .284 95 101 4.22 106 0.1 Joey Gerber 29.0 8.4 4.3 1.2 10.9% 21.1% .293 88 91 4.56 114 0.0 Dalton Moats 32.0 7.6 3.4 1.1 8.5% 19.1% .295 91 91 4.33 110 0.0 Kyle Whitten 42.0 6.4 3.2 1.3 8.1% 16.1% .290 87 91 4.75 116 -0.1 Mike Flynn 41.3 8.9 3.5 1.3 8.9% 22.9% .292 85 87 4.82 117 -0.1 Nate Dahle 46.7 7.3 3.3 1.4 8.4% 18.7% .293 88 93 4.72 113 -0.1 Erasmo Ramirez 62.3 7.1 2.7 1.4 7.1% 18.2% .293 88 82 4.75 113 -0.1 Alfredo Zarraga 55.0 8.3 4.4 1.3 10.9% 20.6% .290 86 91 4.91 116 -0.2 Keyshawn Askew 65.0 8.0 4.6 1.1 11.3% 19.9% .286 82 87 5.07 122 -0.2 Jack Hartman 40.0 7.2 4.1 1.4 9.9% 17.7% .298 82 86 4.95 121 -0.2 Joey Krehbiel 47.7 6.8 3.8 1.3 9.6% 17.2% .285 83 81 4.90 120 -0.2 Haden Erbe 34.7 7.8 4.4 1.6 10.7% 18.9% .290 79 82 5.43 127 -0.2 Antonio Menendez 54.0 7.5 4.5 1.2 11.1% 18.4% .289 84 88 4.97 118 -0.3 Austin Vernon 56.3 8.5 5.1 1.4 12.4% 20.5% .291 77 81 5.29 129 -0.3 Carlos Garcia 50.3 7.5 4.5 1.6 10.9% 18.3% .286 76 79 5.62 132 -0.4 Jonny Cuevas 54.7 5.6 4.8 1.3 11.5% 13.4% .292 77 83 5.48 129 -0.4 Dan Hammer 40.3 8.3 7.4 1.3 16.8% 18.9% .289 70 72 6.10 142 -0.6 Jake Brentz 30.7 8.8 7.9 1.2 17.9% 19.9% .286 66 65 6.34 151 -0.7

Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles

Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA Shane McClanahan .242 .278 .363 .217 .269 .370 3.1 1.6 2.72 3.89 Drew Rasmussen .217 .271 .302 .230 .273 .360 2.3 1.2 2.40 3.66 Ryan Pepiot .232 .328 .401 .219 .283 .367 2.6 0.9 3.32 4.42 Taj Bradley .254 .325 .438 .219 .271 .363 2.8 0.7 3.51 4.70 Zack Littell .256 .304 .437 .254 .290 .420 2.5 1.0 3.51 4.56 Joe Rock .255 .311 .392 .258 .317 .431 2.1 0.6 3.77 4.89 Shane Baz .226 .308 .389 .245 .311 .392 2.0 0.5 3.62 4.66 Mason Montgomery .221 .299 .336 .251 .324 .427 1.9 0.2 3.61 4.83 Mike Vasil .257 .323 .442 .256 .321 .392 1.8 0.3 3.94 4.96 Ian Seymour .261 .344 .384 .242 .313 .433 1.7 0.1 4.00 5.16 Kevin Kelly .248 .312 .398 .216 .273 .318 1.5 0.3 2.74 4.10 Logan Workman .283 .345 .455 .242 .296 .422 1.6 0.1 4.08 5.18 Pete Fairbanks .235 .311 .358 .211 .280 .333 1.3 0.1 2.57 4.57 Cole Wilcox .278 .343 .473 .259 .319 .390 1.4 0.0 4.27 5.23 Jacob Waguespack .246 .331 .362 .257 .323 .446 1.1 0.1 3.80 5.00 Tyler Alexander .244 .283 .387 .270 .310 .490 1.4 -0.4 4.04 5.41 Joe Boyle .216 .354 .364 .222 .343 .364 1.4 -0.5 3.92 5.62 Edwin Uceta .223 .307 .347 .215 .290 .362 1.1 -0.1 3.16 4.67 Nathan Wiles .280 .324 .463 .259 .305 .416 1.0 0.0 4.14 5.22 Duncan Davitt .271 .339 .469 .258 .319 .422 1.1 -0.1 4.39 5.38 Manuel Rodríguez .258 .342 .423 .211 .289 .307 0.9 -0.2 3.13 4.68 Sean Hunley .265 .322 .457 .269 .320 .419 0.9 0.0 4.14 5.22 Brendan McKay .245 .298 .396 .266 .319 .460 0.7 0.0 3.90 5.18 Richard Lovelady .225 .291 .310 .258 .309 .422 0.9 0.0 3.16 4.50 Andrew Wantz .256 .348 .385 .210 .279 .390 0.8 -0.1 3.51 5.14 Nate Lavender .218 .328 .345 .211 .315 .339 0.8 -0.1 3.12 4.74 Garrett Cleavinger .221 .312 .338 .221 .323 .375 1.0 -0.5 3.18 5.37 Trevor Martin .240 .309 .418 .283 .348 .483 1.0 -0.3 4.51 5.58 Ben Peoples .257 .346 .434 .257 .341 .431 0.8 -0.2 4.36 5.52 Jake Odorizzi .260 .328 .439 .280 .342 .462 0.6 -0.3 4.41 5.82 Yoniel Curet .230 .349 .383 .248 .359 .422 0.9 -0.6 4.64 5.74 Colin Poche .224 .297 .379 .238 .306 .415 0.7 -0.4 3.45 5.12 Eric Orze .216 .325 .340 .246 .318 .424 0.6 -0.3 3.53 4.95 Hunter Bigge .213 .314 .400 .244 .337 .366 0.5 -0.3 3.50 4.95 Trevor Brigden .235 .316 .412 .255 .319 .392 0.5 -0.4 3.64 5.37 Cole Sulser .224 .298 .365 .264 .340 .451 0.6 -0.4 3.54 5.44 Joe Record .283 .374 .478 .235 .315 .348 0.5 -0.4 3.85 5.21 Patrick Wicklander .250 .330 .396 .281 .350 .484 0.6 -0.4 4.43 5.58 Paul Gervase .226 .343 .405 .213 .317 .326 0.5 -0.4 3.66 5.11 Joey Gerber .264 .361 .472 .233 .299 .383 0.3 -0.3 4.04 5.78 Dalton Moats .244 .306 .356 .259 .330 .457 0.3 -0.3 3.79 5.59 Kyle Whitten .269 .345 .436 .258 .309 .438 0.2 -0.4 4.12 5.36 Mike Flynn .233 .333 .411 .253 .347 .425 0.3 -0.5 4.04 5.63 Nate Dahle .279 .361 .453 .242 .296 .424 0.2 -0.5 3.95 5.36 Erasmo Ramirez .267 .333 .448 .260 .310 .443 0.4 -0.6 3.92 5.53 Alfredo Zarraga .255 .353 .422 .241 .328 .420 0.3 -0.6 4.12 5.38 Keyshawn Askew .210 .343 .284 .259 .362 .453 0.3 -0.7 4.34 5.69 Jack Hartman .280 .365 .413 .250 .319 .476 0.0 -0.6 4.38 5.67 Joey Krehbiel .250 .333 .382 .261 .325 .468 0.1 -0.6 4.34 5.79 Haden Erbe .269 .364 .478 .246 .338 .435 0.0 -0.6 4.58 6.05 Antonio Menendez .270 .373 .470 .234 .323 .360 0.1 -0.7 4.27 5.56 Austin Vernon .235 .358 .412 .263 .348 .449 0.1 -0.8 4.66 6.05 Carlos Garcia .271 .360 .479 .245 .345 .441 0.0 -0.7 4.77 6.02 Jonny Cuevas .260 .364 .410 .283 .351 .483 0.0 -0.7 4.74 5.85 Dan Hammer .247 .396 .438 .250 .390 .417 -0.2 -1.1 5.09 6.75 Jake Brentz .194 .370 .306 .256 .426 .451 -0.4 -1.2 5.23 7.85

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2025 due to injury, and players who were released in 2024. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Ukulele Dixieland Jazz band that only covers songs by The Smiths, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.11.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. It is important to remember that ZiPS is agnostic about playing time, and has no information about, for example, how quickly a team will call up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by misinformation, a non-pragmatic reality, or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter or on BlueSky.