NEW ORLEANS — The Kansas City Chiefs are 1.5-point favorites over the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LIX, even though most agree the underdogs have the better roster overall.
Quarterbacks matter greatly, of course, and Patrick Mahomes’ presence on the Chiefs is the great equalizer.
How do NFL coaches see the matchup? I collected insights and picks from five of them as the week wound down and kickoff approached.
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Defensive coordinator: How Chiefs can frustrate Vic Fangio
What the Eagles are doing better now than they’ve done in the past few years is play complementary football. They know running the ball is their strength. This year, they committed to it. The quarterback (Jalen Hurts) is what he is. He understands his limitations.
Kansas City will be fine and score 25-30 points if they can stay on schedule on offense. I do not think that is hard to do against that Philly defense right now. The Rams were able to move the ball when they were able to play in rhythm, staying ahead of the chains. There is going to be underneath space for Mahomes to operate. Then it is going to be about scoring touchdowns in the red zone.
Vic Fangio can’t let this guy (Mahomes) stay on the field. He will get frustrated at some point, and that is how you beat him. He might start playing Cover 1. He will need to find an answer. Kansas City will have opportunities to drive the ball, and if you are within one possession in the fourth quarter, you feel really good because Hurts is not winning the game in the two-minute drill.
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Defensive coach No. 1: What Mahomes must do
Mahomes must get the ball out of his hands, without scrambling around too much. If he cannot do that, then it will be a long day for Kansas City.
But I think Mahomes can get the ball out of his hands quickly. Kansas City is built to do that. Isiah Pacheco is a physical runner. They will find spots to run the ball, and I think they’ve got enough stuff in their scheme where they can get the ball out to Travis (Kelce) on a 5-yard stick route.
Kansas City matches up well. Spags (Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo) is going to have a plan for (the Eagles’) run game, and I don’t think Hurts is going to be able to do much in the pass game. Spags will use some 5-1 structures, some 6-1 structures. That is the best way to go about it against Saquon Barkley.
Offensive coach: Eagles are the better team
I like the Eagles. I think they are the better team. Their pass rush will be a big factor. They won’t be slipping and sliding like they were in Arizona (at the Super Bowl two years ago).
But as much as you credit Kansas City for winning all these close games, Buffalo did not do itself any favors (in the conference championship). Take the fourth-and-5 play late in the game. If you tighten your split like Buffalo did, Spags brings the corner blitz. The receiver (Khalil Shakir) swung left and no one covered him. If Josh (Allen) doesn’t panic and run to the right, the receiver is running for the first down. Kansas City leaves guys uncovered. And then on defense, for Buffalo to give up that late third-down conversion on the most basic gotta-have-it third-down play in football is just tough. I don’t think Philly would let that happen.
Philly will keep the ball away from Mahomes. The quarterback (Hurts) will run. That is hard on the blitz stuff Spags wants to run. Now, if you go through the matchups, suddenly you like Andy Reid over Nick Sirianni. You like Mahomes over Hurts. You like Spagnuolo dialing up the right call in a big spot. You can talk yourself into the Chiefs really fast.
Offensive coordinator: It’s a 50-50 game, which means …
It’s a total 50-50 game. Both defenses are good. Both offenses are good. This is one of the most evenly set up Super Bowls. What’s not evenly set up is one quarterback is definitely better than the other, and when it matters, it matters.
Philly’s only chance is if they can create enough (havoc) with 93 (Milton Williams) inside to push the pocket on Mahomes, and if Saquon can break off some of those big runs, which I don’t think he will be able to do nearly as much, because Spagnuolo will mix it up enough.
Philly can certainly win because they can hand the ball off and play keep-away enough, and they still have really good skill players outside. But the blitzes versus the protection is going to be noticeable. They will get to that quarterback (Hurts) and rattle him. The question is, can they get Philly in passing situations? I do not know that they will be able to do that consistently.
As good as the Eagles are up front on offense, it is hard to block 95 (Chris Jones).
It’s 50-50. I’m saying it’s Kansas City by a field goal at the most. They are not better on paper, but they will play better often enough. In the moment, when it matters, third down and fourth down, Spags is going to have a blitz that gets home.
Philly won’t come after Mahomes enough. If you come after him with just four, he can move enough to buy time and throw the deep over route late and all sorts of stuff. So, I think Kansas City wins.
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Defensive coach No. 2: When Jalen Hurts is best
This one is different from the last time for Philly, and it really is for the obvious reason: that back (Barkley).
Hurts is best when you load the box and he knows what he has got. When he knows it is single-high, some of his deep-ball releases and the way he throws can be very accurate. A.J. Brown can catch it off your cornerback’s head, and then DeVonta (Smith) is lightning quick. You don’t even realize it ’til you are on the field and see him in person. That dude is fast.
The fact that Spags plays two-deep safeties with press corners, it takes you a little while to figure out where to throw the ball. There are very few times where you just go, ‘Oh, I can throw the ball here.’ If Spags is going to play in those shell looks, Philly has to keep handing the ball off, and then it will be a matter of if Spags has enough changeups, if he blitzes the right direction to get Barkley on the ground. Kansas City has given up some rushing yards on the ground recently.
This could be a really short game because both teams can keep the ball on offense. They are both going to move it. They are both really good at converting third and fourth down. It’s going to be a matter of who can finish. Philly is really good in the red zone defensively in critical moments.
It’s just hard to pick against the Chiefs. They know how to finish and they’ve gotten some calls. Bottom line, I’d like to see Philly win, but I think Kansas City gets it done.
Final thoughts
I’ve picked against Kansas City twice this season (both Buffalo games) and can make a good case for Philadelphia here, but I’ll ride with the Chiefs’ situational superiority. All of their key pieces — Andy Reid, Mahomes, Kelce, Chris Jones and Spagnuolo — seem to have the right answers at the key times. The Eagles’ red zone defense is strong and could be Philly’s key to winning as an underdog. Chiefs 24, Eagles 20.
(Photos of Patrick Mahomes, left, and Jalen Hurts: Todd Rosenberg, Sarah Stier / Getty Images)
