Welcome to the playoffs! With the regular season in the books, we’re not only losing lots of meaningless football, but also lots of prop betting opportunities from predictable teams. Every playoff contender has a few weapons they can use on offense, so our job finding edges is now much harder. Nevertheless, we have enough games to build a solid portfolio for wild-card weekend.
I think it’s important to get the three here, and I’m not sure how much longer it will be hanging, so it’s time to move now.
This is a classic matchup of top offenses against middling, perhaps even poor, defenses. On the year, the Buccaneers and Commanders’ offenses are both top-five in success rate, EPA per play, points per drive and drive series conversion rate: these are highly, highly effective offenses. Defensively, the Bucs are 21st in success rate and 18th in EPA per play; the Commanders are 23rd in both.
The Commanders’ offense has been a little worse down the stretch, and the Bucs’ defense has been a little better. Since Week 9, Washington drops to 11th in EPA per play in large part because it’s failing to create explosive passes. Defensively, the Buccaneers have become incredibly stiff against the run with a fully healthy defensive line: sixth in success rate, second in EPA per rush. Yes, the secondary still has issues, but it looks like star safety Antoine Winfield Jr. will return to the lineup after missing the past four games.
I generally like to fade rookie quarterbacks in the postseason, and while Daniels has been a sensational playmaker this year, he’s no exception. First time playoff starters are 19-38 straight up and 19-37-1 against the spread against experienced playoff quarterbacks since 2002. On the road against a Bucs team that can really score, I don’t see Washington keeping it within a field goal.
The Vikings have lost to precisely two teams all season: the Detroit Lions (twice and most recently), and the Rams, who they face this week. The game was moved to Phoenix following the Los Angeles fires, and while it’s not like the Rams carry much home-field advantage at their own stadium, it’s still a significant relocation to a neutral field.
The Rams’ Week 8 win over the Vikings looks spurious in hindsight. In that game, both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua returned to action for the first time in over a month, and the Vikings clearly weren’t prepared for the 2024 version of the passing game that runs through Nacua.
Furthermore, the Vikings lost star offensive tackle Christian Darrisaw midgame, and backup LT Scott Quessenberry was a liability in the second half.
Matthew Stafford was pressured on only 11.8% of his dropbacks during the Rams’ first meeting against the Vikings during the regular season. Photo by Brooke Sutton/Getty Images
Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford was pressured on only 11.8% of his dropbacks in that game — easily the lowest game of his season and the lowest game for the Vikings’ defense. We can reasonably assume the Vikings get twice as much heat on Stafford this go around, if not more, and the difference in Stafford’s game this year under pressure has been dramatic.
UnpressuredPressuredEPA per dropback.26 (16th)-.33 (20nd)Success rate55.6% (14th)32.3% (10th)Adjusted net yards per attempt8.34 (9th)2.13% (20th)Off-target rate13.4% (23rd)31.9% (27th)First down + touchdown rate37.5% (18th)6.3 (21st)Explosive pass rate17.1% (7th)9.7% (14th)
Last week’s loss to the Lions was extremely embarrassing for the Vikings. I trust in Kevin O’Connell, who is an extremely good coach, to use that loss as a slingshot for a strong postseason performance to earn another rematch with the Lions.
Green Bay Packers–Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 45.5 total points (-115)
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Why Fulghum expects the Eagles to cover vs. Packers
Tyler Fulghum explains why he is picking the Eagles to win and cover in their wild card matchup vs. the Packers.
This game clock is going to sprint to the finish. The Eagles and Packers are third and fourth in run rate over expectation this season, as both teams have excellent running backs and reliable offensive lines. I imagine given the respective quarterback injuries — Jordan Love is nursing an injury to the elbow on his throwing arm, and Jalen Hurts is just now exiting concussion protocol after missing two games — each team will be more cautious with their play calling. Run, run, run.
The absence of Christian Watson on the Packers’ sideline does sap some of the Packers’ explosive pass potential, and the last time Hurts played this defense, he invited tons of pressure and turned the ball over three times. I’d wager the Eagles use a quicker passing game to protect Hurts from another high-pressure, high-turnover game. So long as each defense gets a red zone stop or two, there shouldn’t be enough drives in this game to get over a 45.5-point total.
Player props
Joe Mixon UNDER 69.5 rushing yards (-105)
Only six running backs have cleared 70 rushing yards against the Chargers this season, and four of the six came in wins. The Chargers are allowing 30% of carries to gain more rushing yards than expectation — only seven defenses are better — and Mixon is particularly poor at getting more than is blocked for him. Only 38.3% of his runs create yardage over expectation, and because the Texans’ line is so poor, he’s expected to get only 3.8 yards per carry anyway — only four backs are lower.
Even against a Chargers team that deploys plenty of light boxes, it’s not going to be an easy day for Mixon on the ground — doubly so if the Texans fall into a second-half deficit, which is certainly possible given the Chargers’ status as a road favorite. I feel good about taking under 69.5 total rushing yards straight, but I also like taking the under on Mixon’s longest rush at 15.5 as well, in case this game does stay close and Mixon forces his way over the 70-yard mark. I’ll have both in my pocket.
Justin Herbert OVER 19.5 rushing yards (-115)
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The Texans’ run defense has some pretty incredible splits. Against running backs, they’ve allowed -191 rushing yards over expectation — second only to the Ravens this season — at 3.9 yards per carry. But against quarterbacks on the ground, they’re allowing 113 rushing yards over expectation — only the Panthers, Bengals and Cowboys are worse. The Texans’ 6.7 yards per carry allowed to quarterbacks this year is the worst number in football.
Now, Herbert doesn’t get designed carries called for him every game (though I wouldn’t be surprised to see one or two this weekend). However, he’s a much more willing scrambler this season, tucking and going on over 5% of his dropbacks for only the second season in his career. Against a Texans defense likely to get tons of pressure with their elite front, I expect a few pocket-breaking opportunities for Herbert, who is a cautious slider in the regular season but likely a bit more aggressive picking up bonus yardage in postseason football.
Jayden Daniels OVER 49.5 rushing yards (-115)
Jayden Daniels scrambled on 21.2% of his dropbacks during his first game against the Buccaneers in Week 1. AP Photo/Chris O’Meara, file
Daniels’ average scramble rate on the season is 11.8% — one of the highest in all of football. But in four of the past five weeks, he has been over that average. The only game below was against the Cowboys in Week 18, which he left early with leg soreness (and which the Commanders didn’t really need to try their hardest). Daniels’ highest scramble rate was Week 1 against the Buccaneers, in which he scrambled on 21.2% of his dropbacks.
So it is reasonable to expect a higher volume rushing game for Daniels than his average. The line for rushes is set at 8.5 with the over juiced to -125, so I’ll take rushing yards and expect Daniels, a truly elite athlete, to rip off at least one big run to get this number in range. He had 88 yards against this defense in Week 1, Lamar Jackson had another 52 in Week 7, and Bo Nix had 47 — those last two were games the quarterbacks won handily and didn’t run much in the second half. If Daniels trails, as is expected by the point spread, the likelihood of additional scrambles increases.
Cooper Kupp UNDER 49.5 receiving yards (-120)
I’ve been on the under for Kupp a few times this season in this column, and this is another great opportunity. Kupp’s play has tailed as the season has gone on: he has averaged over 1.6 yards per route run in just one of his past six contests, and he’s increasingly bleeding target share to Puka Nacua. In each of his past three games, Kupp has exactly three targets.
It is reasonable to expect that Kupp gets a production bump against the Vikings, who are allowing 1.68 yards per route run to receivers this season (eighth-highest in football). I’m just not sure Kupp has the juice to do a lot with an increased target share. Among receivers with at least 300 routes, Next Gen Stats has Kupp with the lowest “burst” — that’s the speed within the first second of the route — of all receivers. That shows up in his work with the ball in his hands as well: Kupp has only 21 YAC over expectation this year, 26.4 of which came on one huge touchdown catch and run against the Patriots in Week 11. Without it, he’d be generating fewer yards after the catch than expected.
If the Rams end up in a huge deficit against the Vikings and easy completions are surrendered, then perhaps Kupp gets over this number while the Rams claw their way out of the deficit. On a neutral script, this number is simply too tall for how the once-great receiver has played this year.
Other looks and a same-game parlay (SGP)
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Why Fulghum is backing the Bills in wild card vs. Broncos
Tyler Fulghum explains why he is taking the Bills to win and cover in their wild card matchup vs. the Broncos.
Same-game parlay: Bills -6.5, over 41.5 total points, James Cook 20+ receiving yards, Ray Davis 20+ rushing yards (+700)
I love the Bills’ offensive matchup into the Broncos’ defense, which deploys the same heavy dose of man coverage and aggressive blitzes that the Lions defense does — and look at what happened to Detroit against this offense. No doubt the Broncos have better resources in their defensive backfield, but the Bills have such a deep cache of pass-catching weapons at all three positions that they can avoid Pat Surtain II and hunt other matchups.
I love the Bills’ backs as pass catchers in this game, and would take a Ty Johnson line were it available — as it is, Cook can get to 20+ receiving yards on one big play or with a few targets, which I imagine he’ll get as he releases instead of staying in to pick up a blitzer in pass protection. With a big Buffalo lead projected, I like Ray Davis to see some clock-eating carries, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Broncos use garbage time to get us to our full game over.
