Jan 16, 2025, 07:49 AM ET
ESPN’s No.1 pound-for-pound fighter headlines the first UFC pay-per-view of the year Saturday, as lightweight champion Islam Makhachev puts his title on the line against Arman Tsarukyan in the main event of UFC 311 (10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV, with prelims at 8 p.m. ET on ESPNEWS/FX/Disney+/ESPN+ and early prelims at 6 p.m on FX/Disney+/ESPN+).
Makhachev, who has held the title since October 2022, is going for his fourth consecutive title defense. Most recently, he beat Dustin Poirier by fifth-round submission at UFC 302 last June. Tsarukyan, No. 2 in ESPN’s divisional rankings, enters the fight riding a four-fight winning streak. He beat former title holder Charles Oliveira by split decision in his last fight at UFC 300 in April.
The co-main event is also a title fight, as men’s bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili makes his first defense against undefeated Umar Nurmagomedov.
Andreas Hale spoke to MMA analyst and former UFC welterweight Alan Jouban to get his perspective on the main and co-main events. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight and analysis on the title fights and other intriguing bets he likes on the card.
Editor’s note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Lightweight title fight: Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan
Alan Jouban, MMA analyst and former UFC welterweight
How Makhachev wins: Although the first fight in 2019 was close, Makhachev was able to take advantage of a mistake Tsarukyan constantly made in the clinch exchanges. Makhachev used a simple leg sweep to take down Tsarukyan, outsmarting him. I don’t think the champion will have as much of an advantage in the grappling exchanges this time, so he needs to use his striking skills to get the edge. He will have to dig deep in the later rounds and put Tsarukyan on his heels by pressuring him into the fence and using straight punches from range. If he keeps Tsarukyan backing up, he will win this fight.
How Tsarukyan wins: I trained with Tsarukyan for about a year after he fought Makhachev the first time, and it was written all over his face that he wanted to prove how much he has improved his wrestling. I could see it every time we were in wrestling class. It was always in his head that he lost that grappling match with Makhachev. He wants to show that he won’t get out-grappled in this fight. And I don’t think he will. As long as he corrects the mistakes from the first fight, and uses his much-improved striking, he can pull off the upset.
X factor: Striking. I think this fight plays out on the feet, where Tsarukyan is the more diverse striker with more knockout potential. But Makhachev has also proven that he’s much more than a grappler, with great striking and excellent head kicks. He went toe to toe with Dustin Poirier. But the diversity in striking lies with Tsarukyan, if he uses it.
Prediction: Makhachev by decision.
Betting analysis
Odds accurate as of publication. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET.
Parker: Makhachev to win by KO/TKO or decision. Unless Makhachev runs into an opponent who can knock him out, I don’t believe he will lose a fight anytime soon. Tsarukyan is likely his biggest threat in terms of matching Makhachev’s wrestling, but as we saw in Tsarukyan’s last fight against Oliveira, he tends to leave himself open for submission attempts. I don’t think Tsarukyan can outgrapple Makhachev for five rounds or catch the champion off guard with a knockout strike. Look for Makhachev to strike from a distance and control the fight from top position whenever they go to the mat.
Men’s bantamweight title fight: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
Alan Jouban, MMA analyst and former UFC welterweight
How Dvalishvili wins: I think Dvalishvili comes in with a chip on his shoulder because he feels the UFC forced this fight onto him too soon. He’ll have to be the best version of himself, relentless with his takedown attempts and taking advantage of Nurmagomedov attempting kicks to secure takedowns. Both of these fighters are coming off wins against similar opponents, tall and lanky strikers. But Sean O’Malley, whom Dvalishvili beat for the title, is a better striker than Nurmagomedov’s most recent opponent, Cory Sandhagen, and Dvalishvili was able to get in, score takedowns and keep O’Malley on his back.
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How Nurmagomedov wins: He has to neutralize Dvalishvili’s relentless wrestling to change things up. Nurmagomedov needs to use those beautiful kicks in his arsenal, even at the risk of being taken down. It’ll be an adjustment game for him throughout, and he will have to be smart in the striking game.
X factor: The war of attrition in the later rounds. I think this will be a nail-biter going into the championship rounds and it will boil down to who doesn’t get tired. This is a long-distance race, and that falls right into Dvalishvili’s wheelhouse. Can Nurmagomedov continue to stop the takedowns when he is tired?
Prediction: Dvalishvili By decision.
Betting analysis
Parker: Nurmagomedov to win by KO/TKO or decision. The big question in this matchup is: Can Dvalishvili break Nurmagomedov down with his menacing pace and outwrestle him for five rounds? I don’t believe he can. There is no secret to Dvalishvili’s game plan: Wrestle early and as often as possible. Nurmagomedov will be too much for Dvalishvili to handle on the feet, which will make the champion’s takedown attempts too predictable. Dvalishvili has shown that he can be hit while on the feet, having been knocked down in multiple fights. If Nurmagomedov catches him with a big shot while Dvalishvili is shooting for a takedown, Nurmagomedov is too good to allow him back in the fight.
Parker’s best bets for other notable fights on the card
Middleweight: Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder
Holland to win (-110). De Ridder earned a win in his UFC debut, but his showing was less than impressive. His striking looked sloppy, and against Holland, that isn’t going to fly. As long as Holland doesn’t get held down for three rounds, he should knock out de Ridder. Holland has much better standup and he’s no slouch in the jiu-jitsu department either. At these odds, I’m rolling with Holland.
Women’s bantamweight: Karol Rosa vs. Ailin Perez
Rosa to win (-260). Rosa might be one of the most underrated fighters in the division. She has fought higher-level competition than Perez and she’s the more well-rounded fighter in this matchup, especially if the fight stays on the feet or in the clinch. The only way I see Perez upsetting Rosa is if she can take Rosa down and hold her there for three rounds. However, I don’t see that happening as Rosa has solid takedown defense. Take her moneyline in your parlay or take her to win by decision.
