A new year is upon us, and I am happy to say I will be here once again for each and every PPV, breaking down some of my favorite fights from a betting perspective.
Thank you all for the continued support — I hope you enjoy the year to come. And while it’s only the first PPV of the year, the UFC stacked up the event with two great title fights and an action-packed card from top to bottom.
I’ll happily discuss any other fights on this slate in the comment section below.
Let’s dive in!
Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan
In a rematch nearly six years in the making, Islam Makhachev will put his lightweight title on the line this weekend as he takes on fellow wrestler Arman Tsarukyan.
Islam MakhachevArman Tsarukyan
Makhachev and Tsarukyan last met in 2019, in Tsarukyan’s UFC debut, and Tsarukyan became the first man to take Makhachev down in professional MMA. Though it didn’t lead to a victory, it was clear that Tsarukyan had a world of potential at that time, and it’s no surprise to see him climb the ladder and threaten for the championship.
Makhachev is still the sport’s No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter, so the rematch won’t be easy. Tsarukyan’s issue is that while he excels on the mat and can take down most opponents in this division, Makhachev is still better than him in that area.
Makhachev has also developed his boxing since the two last fought when they combined for only 10 significant (sig.) strikes at distance in 2019. Now, Makhachev is coming off a championship victory in which he outboxed Dustin Poirier over five rounds, which simply adds to his threat in all areas.
When I analyze Makhachev, I always ask where opponents can produce offense against him. He defends takedowns at 90 percent and absorbs 1.54 significant strikes per minute with a 61 percent defensive rate. It truly does not get much better than that.
Tsarukyan is a great wrestler, averaging 3.25 takedowns per 15 minutes, but he went 1-for-12 on attempts in the first matchup, and it’s difficult to see him having sustained success here. Even on one to two takedowns landed, I don’t think he can control Makhachev on the mat for any length of time.
Conversely, Makhachev can probably control Tsarukyan. Makhachev landed four takedowns on nine attempts for more than six minutes of control, and he’s a superior submission grappler to Tsarukyan. That was many years ago, but we also saw Mateusz Gamrot land six takedowns on Tsarukyan in 2022, including four takedowns in Rounds 4-5.
Tsarukyan didn’t give them up easily, but Makhachev is highly experienced in five-round matchups and projects to have the better gas tank down the stretch. While the two may have fun scrambles early, and they may neutralize each other to a degree, I think Makhachev can have more sustained wrestling success.
If there’s an area to beat Makhachev, it’s on the feet, where there’s still more variance in striking exchanges. His only pro loss came in 2015 by first-round KO, and he was also hurt by Alexander Volkanovski in 2023.
Tsarukyan isn’t necessarily an elite striker, but he is competent and packs power. He has a brutal first-round KO win over Beneil Dariush, and I think he could hurt Makhachev. He could potentially box competitively with Makhachev, too, in a game where both fighters play defensive roles and absorb a limited amount of strikes.
I still consider Makhachev the better boxer of the two and the more likely fighter to have success in the championship rounds.
The best hope for Tsarukyan is just that he, too, is a strong defensive fighter and a strong wrestler. If he can hold Makhachev off of him, he’ll at least be live to attempt strikes and win some moments. It’s a tough sell, and while I honestly believe he’ll be champion of this division one day, it’s difficult to project any fighter beating Makhachev at a high rate based on the data we have in front of us.
On BetMGM, Makhachev is a -375 favorite, which is an implied win rate of 78.95 percent. It’s hefty but arguably fair.
I think the value lies more in an extended fight, as both men are very defensively sound and will be difficult to finish. You can bet the fight goes the distance at -185, or my preferred play would be to take Makhachev by Decision at -120.
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
In a rare occurrence, we’ll have our reigning bantamweight champion, Merab Dvalishvili, step in as a sizable underdog to defend his title against the undefeated Umar Nurmagomedov.
Merab DvalishviliUmar Nurmagomedov
Nurmagomedov is Khabib Nurmagomedov’s cousin and Makhachev’s training partner, so it’s possible that he’s well worth the price to win. However, unlike those team members, Umar Nurmagomedov still has much to prove at the sport’s top level.
He largely cruised through the bottom level of the division, winning five consecutive fights before being rewarded with a main event and title eliminator against Cory Sandhagen last August. There, he cruised to a unanimous five-round decision, cementing himself as one of the biggest threats for the title.
Like his training partners, Nurmagomedov is an elite wrestler, and he’s proven to be a better technical striker than most expected. He outlanded Sandhagen 96 to 71 at distance and reps similarly elite defensive numbers with a 63 percent defensive striking rate.
I don’t consider Nurmagomedov a dominant force on the canvas, though, nor is he the most physical or powerful athlete in the division. I’m extremely interested to see how he’ll match up with Dvalishvili for this reason, as Dvalishvili has proven to be a generational athlete in terms of cardio and offensive output.
Dvalishvili is not nearly as technical as Nurmagomedov, but that may not matter. It hasn’t mattered yet for him, as he’s averaged 6.09 takedowns landed per 15 minutes on sheer aggression, will and determination. Granted, he’s a very skilled fighter and wrestler, but Dvalishvili isn’t the type to swiftly drop on a single leg and transition to a back take. Instead, he’ll run you into the cage, dump you on the mat with a double leg and grind until you run out of energy. Setting him up in five-round matchups is where he will thrive, given that skill set.
Even on the feet, while he looks sloppy at times, Dvalishvili has excellent striking metrics and has largely outclassed most of the strikers he’s faced. One primary example came in 2023 when Dvalishvili outlanded Petr Yan 129 to 66 at distance while also taking him down 11 times.
This is one of the most difficult style matchups in the sport because you can be technically superior to Dvalishvili in multiple areas, but unless you can put him away, he will keep marching forward and taking you down.
On paper, Nurmagomedov has the defensive wrestling skills to stuff him. He has the distance skills to evade. Can he do it for five rounds without slowing down? I really am not sure. I think Dvalishvili’s pure pacing and physicality will give him a chance. I think he can land takedowns against Nurmagomedov, and I think he may be able to compete with him on the feet as well.
Nurmagomedov may take advantage of some sloppy mistakes with a back take or perhaps an RNC finish. I don’t know if Dvalishvili has any real finishing upside. But Nurmagomedov isn’t the most damaging striker, and if he’s not on Dvalishvili’s back, he may not have many other methods to deter him.
I will pick Nurmagomedov by default because he is clearly technically superior, but I consider this a competitive matchup on paper, and I would not put it past Dvalishvili to hunt Nurmagomedov down for five rounds, grind him to some competitive rounds and steal a late decision.
On BetMGM, Nurmagomedov is a -300 favorite, which is an implied win rate of 75 percent. It very well may be fair, but based on Dvalishvili’s skill set, I have to project it as a more competitive matchup than that.
I am not going out of my way to bet Dvalishvili as a +240 dog, but I would guess the value lies in his corner, and I don’t mind a +350 Dvalishvili decision prop, which is clearly his most likely path to victory.
Nurmagomedov won’t be in any of my parlays, and my gut feeling is that he, too, is most likely to win by decision at -135 if you’re looking for a prop to ride. He could also have submission equity at +350, though that is more of a long shot.
Renato Moicano vs. Beneil Dariush
I wouldn’t say this is my favorite card in terms of betting action, but there are a few high-variance matchups that are pretty intriguing, including this main card bout between Renato Moicano and Beneil Dariush.
Renato MoicanoBeneil Dariush
From a macro perspective, these are two top-level fighters in the lightweight division. The primary difference is that Dariush has fallen short recently, while Moicano has not.
Moicano is coming off back-to-back TKO victories over Jalin Turner and Benoit Saint Denis, though context is very important. In the Turner fight, Moicano was nearly knocked out in the first round but was able to survive when Turner thought he had a walk-off shot. In the Saint Denis fight, Moicano dominated the early exchanges but actually lost the second round, though the doctor was forced to stop the bout due to the damage BSD sustained early.
Conversely, Dariush has been brutally knocked out in back-to-back matchups by Charles Oliveira and Arman Tsarukyan, though the context is again needed as Oliveira is the former champ, and Tsarukyan is fighting for the title this weekend.
Durability has played a major role for Dariush and Moicano throughout their respective careers. Dariush had a couple more devastating KO losses in 2017-18 prior to mounting an eight-fight win streak that nearly earned him a title shot. Moicano has been hurt badly in essentially all of his UFC losses, and he’s been officially knocked out three times.
If you put the durability aspect aside, both fighters are super talented and among my favorites to watch.
Moicano is a fun, high-volume striker who also has a top-level submission game. Dariush may even be better in those areas and is one of the most intelligent fighters in the division, to boot.
When I look at the matchup, while I understand being more cautious on the Dariush side, I don’t see why he can’t fight competitively or win.
Dariush may be the more technical kickboxer of the two. He lands 3.78 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 2.65 per minute with a 57 percent defensive rate. He’s got some power in his hands, too, and has knocked down six different UFC opponents.
Moicano lands 4.42 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.60 per minute with a 60 percent defensive rate. He’ll throw a bit more volume, but he’s only earned one career knockdown.
Largely, I see striking exchanges being competitive. Either man could get hurt, and both are effective enough to win rounds.
On the grappling side, Moicano lands 1.87 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Dariush lands 1.90 per 15 minutes. Both are Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belts and are generally considered elite submission artists.
Both defend takedowns well numerically, with Moicano at 72 percent and Dariush at 80 percent. Of the two, however, I consider Dariush to have better takedown defense and scrambling ability. The two may neutralize each other here, but I’d lean toward Dariush as having more general control upside on the mat.
On BetMGM, Moicano is lined as a -175 favorite, which is an implied 63.64 percent win rate, and I’d consider the value to be on the Dariush side at +145. I’d cap this fight much closer to 50-50 personally, and I think Dariush is very live for the win.
As mentioned at the top, it’s a high-variance fight considering the questionable durability of both sides, but Dariush’s recent results are likely what’s moving the market toward Moicano. I won’t be shoving my chips in here, but I don’t mind a sprinkle on the +145 number while it lasts.
(Photo of Arman Tsarukyan: Jeff Bottari / Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)