Sports Mole previews Tuesday’s Australian Open quarter-final match between Aryna Sabalenka and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

Fresh off an 18th consecutive victory at the Australian Open, Aryna Sabalenka aims to advance to the last four when she takes on the oldest woman left in the draw, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, in Tuesday’s quarter-final contest.

The world No. 1 may be the favourite to set up a last-four berth against Coco Gauff or Paula Badosa but will be wary of an opponent she holds a negative record against on the women’s tour.

Match preview

© Imago

Despite predictions before the fourth round anticipating a close encounter, Sabalenka dispatched teenage sensation Mirra Andreeva in straight sets, sealing a 6-1, 6-2 victory in 62 minutes.

Strikingly, the top seed spent the shortest time on court against the highest-ranked opponent she has faced to avenge last season’s Roland Garros quarter-final defeat and set up a fourth meeting with Pavlyuchenkova.

That success extended the two-time defending champion’s victorious run to 18 Down Under and as many wins on hard-court majors after clinching last year’s Australian Open and US Open.

The ambition heading into the opening major of the year was a three-peat Down Under, and the 26-year-old is three wins away from emulating the last woman to achieve the feat – Martina Hingis (1997-1999) – and the first since the turn of the millennium.

Keen to improve on her 84% win rate, the top seed not only enters the quarter-final as the fresher player but also the one with momentum, evidenced by a nine-match winning streak since losing to Gauff at the WTA Finals last year.

© Imago

It will be fascinating to see if Pavlyuchenkova’s time spent on court makes the 33-year-old battle-hardened or if the mileage takes a toll.

Another potential three-setter seemed in the offing against Donna Vekic before the Croatian player’s right knee led to a one-sided second set in Sunday’s 7-6(0), 6-0 success in one hour and 45 minutes at John Cain Arena.

While the 27th seed’s previous two matches have admittedly been under two hours, three-setters against Yuan Yue and Anastasia Potapova lasting nearly two hours and three hours 30 minutes, respectively, could undermine the Russian’s aim for a first semi-final berth Down Under after making three quarter-final appearances between 2017 and 2020.

Despite reaching the French Open championship match at Roland Garros the following year before losing to Barbora Krejcikova, the 33-year-old failed to hit the previous heights in Australia, twice exiting in round one and round three before last year’s second-round elimination.

Having her best Grand Slam run since the 2023 French Open and since the 2020 tournament in Melbourne, the oldest woman left in the draw aims to stun the fancied Sabalenka, whom many are tipping for a third straight title Down Under.

Tournament so far

Aryna Sabalenka:

First round: vs. Sloane Stephens 6-3 6-2

Second round: vs. Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 6-3 7-5

Third round: vs. Clara Tauson 7-6[5] 6-4

Round of 16: vs. Mirra Andreeva 6-1 6-2

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova:

First round: vs. Yuan Yue 6-4 4-6 6-3

Second round: vs. Anastasia Potapova 7-6[2] 2-6 6-2

Third round: vs. Laura Siegemund 6-1 6-2

Round of 16: vs. Donna Vekic 7-6[0] 6-0

Head To Head

French Open (2021) – Third round: Pavlyuchenkova 6-4 2-6 6-0

Madrid (2021) – Semi-final: Sabalenka 6-2 6-3

Toronto (2019) – Round of 16: Pavlyuchenkova 3-6 6-3 7-5

Pavlyuchenkova leads her head-to-head with Sabalenka 2-1, with the pair’s last meeting during the Russian’s 2021 run to the championship match at Roland Garros.

The 33-year-old is 3-7 in her recent match-ups against top-10 players, though two wins were last year against Marketa Vondrousova in Doha and Qinwen Zheng in Cincinnati – both on hard courts.

The 12-time tour champion’s only other victory over an elite player was the aforementioned triumph against Sabalenka in 2021, the last of her seven Grand Slam wins against such opponents.

We say: Sabalenka to win in two sets

Although Pavlyuchenkova’s significant power and aggressive style could pose a challenge to Sabalenka, the top seed is expected to secure her tenth consecutive victory this season and her 19th win on the trot at the Australian Open.

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