The Braves announced that they have signed free agent outfielder Jurickson Profar to a three-year, $42MM deal. The MVP Sports Group client will make $12MM this year and then $15MM in each of the next two seasons. Robert Murray of FanSided reported earlier that the two sides were in agreement. Atlanta designated right-hander Connor Gillispie in a corresponding move.
Profar, 32, has been wildly inconsistent in his career but is coming off his best season. Once a top prospect with the Rangers, he made it to the majors as a 19-year-old but struggled in his first few seasons. He eventually showed some promise but frustratingly alternated between good and bad seasons.
He had one of those down seasons in 2023, which is why the Padres were able to sign him last offseason for just $1MM, barely above the league minimum. The Padres probably couldn’t have dreamed about the return on investment they would eventually get from that.
Profar got into 158 games and stepped to the plate 668 times. His 15.1% strikeout rate and 11.4% walk rate were both strong numbers but fairly normal for him. He managed to do more damage when he connected, without sacrificing any of his trademark plate discipline. His 24 home runs were a career high. The three numbers in his .280/.380/.459 slash line were all personal bests as well, apart from a .471 slugging percentage in his nine-game debut back in 2012. His 139 wRC+ easily eclipsed his previous personal high of 113 and was also put him in the top 15 among qualified hitters last year. The switch-hitter did that damage from both sides of the plate, with a 137 wRC+ as a lefty and 147 as a righty.
Given his capricious production over the years, it would be fair to be a bit skeptical that he could keep that kind of performance going. However, there are some encouraging numbers under the hood. Profar’s 44.8% hard hit hate rate, 91.1 mile-per-hour average exit velocity and 7.2% barrel rate were all significantly better than anything he had done before. His .302 batting average on balls in play was a career high but just a bit above the .291 league average.
Though Profar has played all over the diamond in his career, he’s mostly a left fielder now. He’s barely played the other outfield slots in his career. He hasn’t really been an infield regular since 2019. He logged just 18 innings at first base last year, the only place he played apart from left field during the campaign.
Profar’s work in left hasn’t been especially well regarded. Last year, he was given a grade of -8 from Defensive Runs Saved and -6 from Outs Above Average. Despite that, thanks to his huge offense and ten stolen bases, FanGraphs considered him to be worth 4.3 wins above replacement on the season.
That production was huge for the Padres, given that they had notable financial restraints, which is why they took that $1MM flier on Profar. They surely would have welcomed him back, given the longstanding ties between Profar and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller. However, their financial situation is perhaps even more grim now than it was a year ago. They reportedly need to make significant cuts to the budget while also looking for solutions on the roster. In addition to Profar’s absence in left, they have question marks behind the plate, in the rotation and at shortstop.
Profar has also expressed a fondness for San Diego and probably wanted to go back, but he also probably recognized that this is probably his best chance at a free agent payday. He had previously signed a three-year, $21MM deal with the Padres going into 2021 but opted out of that pact after two years. He settled for modest one-year deals in the past two offseasons but has now secured himself a strong three-year deal.
For Atlanta, outfield has stood out as a clear area for improvement this winter. Ronald Acuña Jr. suffered a torn ACL in his left knee last year and missed the second half of the season. He’ll be back in right field at some point in 2025 but probably not on Opening Day. Players like Ramón Laureano and Jorge Soler were used to cover for Acuña’s absence but jettisoned after the season. Soler was flipped to the Angels while Laureano was non-tendered. The club’s acquisition of Jarred Kelenic last offseason also didn’t go especially well. He struck out 29.6% of the time and hit .231/.286/.393 for a wRC+ of 86.
Time will tell how the club plans to play it once everyone is healthy. Michael Harris II will be in center but Atlanta has its designated hitter spot committed to Marcell Ozuna. Profar and Kelenic can flank Harris for now but Acuña will eventually be back. The lefty-swinging Kelenic has better numbers against righties but the club presumably isn’t giving the Profar $42MM to be a short-side platoon guy.
Perhaps Kelenic will eventually get pushed into a fourth outfielder role once Acuña is back, though he may have a bit of time to prove himself worthy of more. Ozuna is an impending free agent, so perhaps the foursome of Harris, Acuña, Profar and Kelenic can better co-exist in 2026 and beyond. Kelenic does have an option remaining, so some time in the minors is possible as well.
More to come.
