Our betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight as he analyses the weekend’s FA Cup fourth-round action and makes a case for Birmingham to beat Newcastle.
Manchester United vs Leicester, Friday 8pm
This Manchester United team don’t score goals. Thank you, Captain Obvious!
They have scored just 28 goals in 24 Premier League matches this season to a per-90 average of 1.17 – only Leicester, Ipswich, Southampton and Everton average less.
A key issue stems from their inability to start games with any intent under Ruben Amorim. Slow starts are setting the tone for the rest of the game.
The only first-half goal they have scored in their last 14 games in all competitions was Bruno Fernandes’ penalty in the defeat to Brighton and, after going in level at the break against Palace, it is now 16 matches since this team led after 45 minutes.
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Manchester United head coach Ruben Amorim says his transfer strategy was his own idea but admits he is taking risks although with the support of the board
It is bringing about some fantastic betting opportunities to exploit, especially with the half-time 0-0 correct score on offer at 3/1 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
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Leyton Orient vs Manchester City, Saturday 12.15pm
As someone who has been riding the Manchester City downfall train to profitable effect this season, the chance to back their opposition at 20/1 with Sky Bet is lighting my eyes up, right? Imagine if City lose at Brisbane Road? Pep Guardiola may combust into a thousand pieces.
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Highlights from the Premier League clash between Arsenal and Manchester City
Orient boss Richie Wellens is certainly up for the challenge, saying: “Our analysts have been in their element this week because they’ve been watching clips of them playing PSG, Arsenal and Liverpool. We’ve sensed vulnerabilities there.”
I like this from Wellens.
City are so open without the ball that Orient will get moments just by being very direct and getting the ball forward quickly – this makes their shots line very interesting from a betting perspective. Salford, of League Two, managed to fire 10 shots in the 8-0 reverse earlier this season while City’s average of 12.5 shots faced per 90 across their last 20 games outlines their woeful out-of-possession structure.
Jamie Donley, on loan from Spurs, is Orient’s shots master, posting 23 shots in his last 10 league games. Those numbers make the 9/4 with Sky Bet on hitting that average and registering two or more shots very interesting.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Birmingham vs Newcastle, Saturday 5.45pm – PLAY SUPER 6!
Some may fall into the trap of believing in the momentum factor of Newcastle reaching the Carabao Cup final on Wednesday night. Firstly, it is an impossible metric to quantify so should be ignored when making betting decisions and there is evidence to support that making a cup final can actually harm your subsequent league form rather than boost it.
Just looking at the last six non-big-six teams to make the EFL Cup final and their results between their win in the second leg and the final does show a correlation of form loss.
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Highlights of the Carabao Cup semi-final second leg between Newcastle United and Arsenal
In those 24 games, the clubs involved suffered 12 losses, five draws and just seven wins. There is evidence to suggest that making a cup final offers little momentum in the next set of games before the big day. Newcastle are included in that sample of clubs when they made the Carabao Cup final in 2023 – they were winless in their next three matches following their semi-final win, drawing to West Ham and Bournemouth and losing to Liverpool.
Birmingham are running away with the League One title, averaging 2.33 points per games this season. That is only bettered by Liverpool (2.38) in the top four English divisions. Their midweek Vertu Trophy win over Stevenage made it 18 games unbeaten in all competitions – a run stretching back to November 23 when they were humbled by Shrewsbury. In the league they have kept nine clean sheets in their last 13 matches, conceding just four goals.
They can cause an upset here. Back them to qualify at 100/30 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Birmingham to qualify (100/30 with Sky Bet)
Brighton vs Chelsea, Saturday 8pm – PLAY SUPER 6!
A theory that has a habit of paying dividends when it comes to football betting is to back a team to tighten up defensively that have been thumped in their previous game. Brighton fit the bill following their 7-0 walloping at Nottingham Forest where they failed to do the basics of defending throughout the game.
There should be a reaction from them with their defensive output against a Chelsea team who have just dropped their own goal output of late, scoring just 1.4 goals per 90 in the Premier League across their last nine games. The under 2.5 goals line at 6/4 with Sky Bet should go close.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 (Chelsea to win on penalties)
Plymouth vs Liverpool, Sunday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6!
Those who think Liverpool are the best team in England should consider backing them to win the FA Cup outright when you assess how the market is shaping up. Arne Slot’s men are 4/1 second favourites with Sky Bet, with Manchester City priced up as the market leaders – that makes little sense.
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Highlights from the Carabao Cup semi-final second leg between Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur
This should not prove too much of a problem for the Reds based on Plymouth’s current form of winning one of their last 16 Championship matches. An away win with under 3.5 goals thrown into the mix at 6/5 with Sky Bet looks the play.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2
Aston Villa vs Tottenham, Sunday 5.35pm – PLAY SUPER 6!
Aston Villa are an easy team to score against, especially without Pau Torres. He is a huge miss and I’m always wary of trusting them without him.
The data points to the Spanish defender being a massive player for them.
Since the start of last season, in 51 games with him, Villa’s win percentage is at 58 per cent and they have conceded 1.3 goals per game. Without him, across a sample size of 22 games, their win percentage drops to 35 per cent and they are conceding 2.1 goals per game. In total, their percentage drops 23 per cent without him and they concede 0.8 more goals.
Of course, football is a low scoring sport so that goals conceded number is a red flag when it comes to backing Villa in this spot. This is a more important match for Spurs and they are the bet to qualify at 7/4 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Jones Knows’ best bet…
1pt on Birmingham to qualify vs Newcastle (100/30 with Sky Bet)
Best Bet singles (1 unit) Best Bet multiples Total P+L Matchday One -2.10 -1 -3.10 Matchday Two +1 -1 -3.10 Matchday Three -3.00 -1 -7.10 Matchday Four +3.90 +11 +7.80 Matchday Five -2 -1 +4.80 Matchday Six -1 -1 +2.80 Matchday Seven 0 -1 +1.80 Matchday Eight -3 0 -2.80 Matchday Nine +1 0 -1.80 Matchday 10 +2.38 -1 -0.42 Matchday 11 +1.4 +5 +5.98 Matchday 12 0 -1 +4.98 Matchday 13 -2 -0.5 +2.48 Matchday 14 0 -1 +1.48 Matchday 15 -1 -1 -0.52 Matchday 16 -1 -1 -2.52 Matchday 17 +2 -1 -1.52 Matchday 18 -1 -1 -3.52 Matchday 19 +3.5 -1 -1.02 Matchday 20 +3 -1 +0.98 Matchday 21 +1 0 +1.98 Matchday 22 -2 0 -0.02 Matchday 23 -3 0 -3.02 Matchday 24 0 -1 -4.02
