The Athletic has live coverage of Steelers vs Ravens and Chargers vs Texans in the NFL Wild Card playoff games.
Derrick Henry watched the Baltimore Ravens’ AFC Championship Game loss to the Kansas City Chiefs last January on television, wishing he could have been part of it. If a pre-trade deadline deal with the Tennessee Titans had gone through and Henry was sent to Baltimore, it’s inconceivable that the Ravens would have handed the ball to running backs only six times in a 17-10 loss to the eventual Super Bowl champs.
The Ravens have waited nearly a year to return to the playoff stage and provide a better representation of themselves. That opportunity comes Saturday night at M&T Bank Stadium, where they’ll face their AFC North rival Pittsburgh Steelers looking to make the first step toward an elusive Super Bowl.
The Ravens take into the matchup plenty of scar tissue from past playoff failures. In Henry, they also now have a 6-foot-3, 247-pound reminder of the style of football that typically plays well this time of year and a guy to take some pressure off quarterback Lamar Jackson.
“It’s great to have a great back,” Ravens coach John Harbaugh said this week. “It’s going to be a big part of our approach in the playoffs.”
Jackson enters the playoffs after another MVP-caliber campaign, yet with questions about his ability to reach or exceed his regular-season form in the postseason. On Saturday, he’ll face a Steelers defense that’s given him more trouble than any other in the NFL. Jackson will also be without his top pass catcher, Zay Flowers, a 1,000-yard receiver who will miss the wild-card game with a right knee sprain.
Lamar Jackson has yet to be his best in the playoffs. The Ravens need that to change
But the Ravens now have Henry, who was essentially brought to Baltimore last offseason with moments like this — and weather like this — in mind. The temperature for the 8 p.m. ET kickoff is expected to be in the high 20s.
“I’d rather it not be cold, but you say we have Derrick Henry, so that’s a bonus,” Jackson said this week. “I don’t believe anybody likes hitting in the cold — not even the defenders like hitting in the cold, I believe, especially with a 250-pound, all-muscle running back running downhill at you. I wouldn’t want to do it, but it’s great for us.”
After a 1,921-yard, 18-touchdown regular season, Henry is back in the playoffs for the first time since 2021. He hasn’t been part of a playoff win since the Titans’ surprising run to the AFC championship following the 2019 regular season. The Ravens monitored Henry’s workload in the first half of the season, wanting to make sure the 31-year-old was as fresh as possible down the stretch. That’s exactly how it has played out.
Over his last three games, Henry has rushed for 447 yards and three touchdowns on 71 carries, while also catching six passes for 68 yards. Included in that stretch was an 189 total yards performance in Baltimore’s 34-17 win over the Steelers on Dec. 21.
The most prominent criticism of the Ravens coaching staff after recent playoff losses is they’ve abandoned the run too easily. Henry should make that much harder to do.
“I just wanted to come here to make an impact and be an adding piece to this offense, to this team, to help them get to where they want to go,” Henry said Tuesday. “This week is a first step.”
During game weeks, we’ll examine some of the storylines, matchups and questions the Ravens face heading into the contest. This week’s first-and-10:
1. Jackson broke his personal four-game losing streak to the Steelers three weeks ago and also pushed back against the narrative that Pittsburgh’s defense has him figured out. Jackson completed 15 of 23 passes for 207 yards, three touchdowns and one interception and took just one sack while rushing for 22 yards. It’s worth mentioning, however, that the list of Steelers defensive players who either didn’t play at all in that game or played very little included run-stuffing defensive end Larry Ogunjobi, starting cornerbacks Joey Porter Jr. and Donte Jackson, and starting safety DeShon Elliott. Elliott, in particular, could be a significant factor because he’s a sound and physical tackler and gives Pittsburgh a weapon to deploy near the line of scrimmage to stop Henry and Jackson in the run game.
2. If the Steelers are going to upset the Ravens, turnovers will likely be a reason why. In the first meeting this season, Baltimore turned the ball over three times compared to just one by Pittsburgh. In the late-December matchup, the Ravens fumbled three times but recovered all of them and ultimately won the turnover battle, two to one. Russell Wilson’s two turnovers, one returned for a touchdown by Marlon Humphrey and the other recovered inside the Ravens’ 5, were the biggest plays of that game. In six career starts against Pittsburgh, Jackson has committed 11 turnovers. The Ravens emphasized the turnover battle all week. They can’t give a struggling Pittsburgh offense any freebies with great field position. The Ravens have been nearly impossible to beat when they’re finishing drives and not gifting the ball to their opponent.
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3. With Flowers down, Rashod Bateman will step into the No. 1 receiver role. Bateman has played five career games against Pittsburgh and hasn’t had more than two receptions in any of them. His career stat line versus Pittsburgh is six catches for 74 yards and a touchdown. This has been a breakout season for Bateman with a career high in receiving yards (756) and touchdowns (nine). Having a big day in Flowers’ absence against a defense he’s struggled against would be further affirmation of his growth.
4. The Ravens used 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends, two wide receivers) on offense 31.1 percent of the time this season, which is sixth most in football. They used 20 personnel (Henry with fullback Patrick Ricard and three wide receivers) a league-high 4.2 percent of the time. They were in 21 personnel (Henry, Ricard, a tight end and two wide receivers) 20.6 percent of the time, the third most in the NFL. Baltimore also was in 22 personnel (Henry, Ricard, two tight ends and one wide receiver) a league-high 12.7 percent of the time. It wouldn’t be at all surprising, particularly with Flowers sidelined, to see the Ravens use a lot of “heavy” looks and even potentially utilize tight end Isaiah Likely as a receiver.
5. Wilson was sacked three or more times in seven of his 11 starts this season. Pittsburgh’s two starting tackles, Dan Moore Jr. and Broderick Jones, each allowed double-digit sacks. If starting right guard Mason McCormick plays Saturday — he is questionable — it will be with a brace over his broken left hand. The Ravens, who finished second in the league with 54 sacks, should be in a position to take advantage of the Steelers’ issues up front. Per Pro Football Network, Wilson’s passer rating when pressured over the last four games of the season was 43.9.
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6. Over the last seven games, the Ravens allowed the fewest yards per game (261.7), net passing yards per game (171.6) and yards per play (4.4). If there’s a concern defensively, though, it’s with cornerback Brandon Stephens. Defensive coordinator Zach Orr expressed confidence in Stephens and said he had a great week of practice. However, he figures to get tested by Wilson and company, particularly on deep balls, which Stephens has struggled to defend. Stephens allowed 65 receptions this season, the fifth most by any cornerback in the NFL, per Pro Football Focus. Quarterbacks had a 107.4 passer rating while targeting him. On their lone touchdown drive last week, the Cleveland Browns targeted Stephens almost exclusively. The Ravens have the option of using Tre’Davious White more on the outside opposite rookie Nate Wiggins, with Humphrey playing inside. Orr, however, didn’t make it sound like a reduced role for Stephens is in the offing.
7. George Pickens is coming off a brutal Week 18 outing against the Cincinnati Bengals (one catch for zero yards on six targets), but playing in this game after missing the previous matchup in Baltimore feels like it’s not getting enough attention. Pickens has averaged 17.2 yards per reception in five career games versus the Ravens. In Pittsburgh’s win in November, he had eight catches for 89 yards. In the first meeting in 2023, Pickens had six receptions and a touchdown on 146 total yards. He’s a difference-maker when he’s right.
8. One area where the Steelers have the advantage is on special teams. Pittsburgh ranks second in special teams DVOA. The Ravens are 23rd. Pittsburgh’s Calvin Austin III is a dangerous punt returner. Chris Boswell made more field goals than any kicker in the NFL and was 13-of-15 from 50-plus yards. The Steelers have been the best team in the league at blocking kicks and punts in recent seasons. The Ravens’ normally vaunted special teams units struggled for a chunk of the season, but they’ve been on the upswing. Harbaugh has a decision to make at punt returner on Saturday. Otherwise, Justin Tucker hasn’t missed a kick since Week 13. The Ravens have been dangerous lately on kick returns. This is a big test for Chris Horton’s group. The Steelers routinely get momentum-changing plays on special teams. Baltimore can’t let it happen.
9. Alex Kemp will be the referee for Saturday’s game. That’s notable for the Ravens because Kemp’s crew threw 254 flags this season. That’s the third most by any crew. Fifty-nine of those were for offensive holding, tied for the most by any crew. Baltimore improved its penalty issues over the last month, but it still finished 31st in the league in penalty yards and 30th in total penalties. The Steelers ranked ninth and 10th in those categories. The Ravens can’t get behind the sticks and give T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith a chance to tee off on second- and third-and-longs. Defensively, the Ravens’ improved play on third down has partly been a result of committing fewer penalties. That needs to continue.
10. A fast start for the Ravens feels imperative, if for no other reason than it would prevent a “here we go again” feeling that could permeate through the home crowd if they get behind early. In the six playoff games with Jackson at quarterback, the Ravens have never had a halftime lead and have trailed heading into the locker room in three of them. Jackson acknowledged this week that he’s been a little amped up in previous playoff games. That has led to him trying too hard to make plays. An early lead seemingly would settle Jackson down, keep the crowd involved and give offensive coordinator Todd Monken even more reason to stick to the run game.
Prediction
Ravens 23, Steelers 20
Yes, the Ravens enter the playoffs having won four straight, while the Steelers were losers of their last four. And yes, that stretch included a 17-point Baltimore victory over Pittsburgh three weeks ago. None of that matters now. The Steelers are healthier, especially on defense, and Flowers is a big loss for Baltimore. Styles make fights, and as Mike Tomlin has pointed out several times over the years, the Steelers know how to play the Ravens — and they do it well. Despite the large point spread and one-sided predictions, this is a dangerous and difficult game for the Ravens, who have all the pressure on them. The bet here is they find a way to get it done, but not before there are some anxious moments for the home team.
(Top photo: Patrick Smith / Getty Images)
