RFK Jr. HHS Confirmation Live Updates: Betting Odds Suggest Kennedy’s Confirmation Nearly Certain After Clearing Key Vote

The Senate Finance Committee on Tuesday voted along party lines to support the nomination of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as Health and Human Services secretary—a key victory for one of President Donald Trump’s most controversial cabinet picks, after some GOP lawmakers remained on the fence due to Kennedy’s claims about vaccines.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., nominee to be Secretary of Health and Human Services, testifies in front of … [+] the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions in Washington DC, United States on Jan. 30, 2025.

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Timeline

2:30 p.m. EST, Feb. 4Kennedy’s odds of achieving confirmation soared, according to election betting platforms, with Kalshi placing his odds at 96% and blockchain-based site Polymarket showing a 97% chance of confirmation.

1:15 p.m. EST, Feb. 4Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va, who has spoken against Kennedy’s nomination, said “Vegas odds” are that he will be confirmed as HHS secretary after a key Republican, Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, gave his support minutes before a Senate Finance Committee vote Tuesday morning.

11:50 a.m. EST, Feb. 4Cassidy a physician and chair of the Senate health committee, on Tuesday defended his support of Kennedy after publicly expressing his skepticism for the nominee before voting “yes” as a member of the finance committee.

Cassidy said he chose to vote for Kennedy after being assured the administration would work closely with the senate health committee and also pushed back on Kennedy’s longstanding—and disproven—theory that childhood vaccines are linked to autism. He said that Kennedy “has been insistent that he just wants good science and to ensure safety” but that “On this topic, the science is good. The science is credible. Vaccines save lives. They are safe. They do not cause autism.”

Cassidy promised he would not allow the Department of Health and Human Services to withdraw access to vaccinations without “ironclad, causational scientific evidence that can be accepted and defended before the mainstream scientific community and before Congress” and that he would watch for “any effort to wrongfully sow public fear about vaccines.”

10:27 a.m. EST, Feb. 4The senators on the finance committee voted 14-13 to move Kennedy’s nomination forward to a floor vote of all 100 senators.

10:15 a.m. EST, Feb. 4The ranking member of the Senate Finance Committee Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Oregon, spoke against Kennedy’s nomination, citing his vaccine and stances, and saying he failed to show a “basic understanding” of Medicare and Medicaid programs.

9:39 a.m. EST, Feb. 4Trump made a last minute Truth Social post to support Kennedy, seeming to reference Kennedy’s stance on vaccines and autism: “20 years ago, Autism in children was 1 in 10,000,” Trump posted. “NOW IT’S 1 in 34. WOW! Something’s really wrong. We need BOBBY!!!” (The post didn’t mention autism.)

In reality, while it is true that autism diagnoses are on the rise—the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says 1 in 36 children have been diagnosed, up significantly from 1 in 150 in 2000—dozens of studies have discredited the claim the increase is linked to vaccines, and researchers have instead said it could be attributed to increased awareness of the disorder, more babies born to older parents and risk factors like exposure to toxic chemicals and viral infections during pregnancy, among other factors. Also, the autism diagnosis rate has not been as low as one in 10,000, as cited by Trump, since the 1980s, according to the Iris Center at Vanderbilt University.

Jan. 31In written responses to questions from senators, Kennedy said he was in the process of amending his ethics pledge to divest his financial interest in a lawsuit against Merck over its HPV vaccine and instead would direct proceeds from the suit to one of his adult sons, Politico and the Times reported, after he faced scrutiny over the arrangement that allowed him to get 10% of fees awarded from cases he referred to the suit.

Jan. 30Kennedy testified in front of the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, including tough questions from Republican lawmaker Cassidy about his stances on vaccines.

Jan. 29Kennedy told senators in his opening statement before the Senate Finance Committee that he is not “anti-vaccine or anti-industry,” but is instead “pro-safety.” (Read more on his contentious Senate Finance Committee hearing here.)

Jan. 29Kennedy’s former running mate, Nicole Shanahan, threatened to fund primary challenges against any senators who vote against his nomination in a video on X, telling them “while Bobby may play nice, I won’t.”

Jan. 28Journalist Ryan D’Agostino claimed in a piece published in Esquire that Kennedy suggested to him in 2020 that his 6-year-old son’s leukemia might have been attributed to the polio and measles, mumps and rubella vaccine.

Jan. 28Kennedy’s niece, Kerry Kennedy, who worked as a doctor in a New York City intensive care unit during the Covid-19 pandemic, released emails from 2022 between her and her uncle to STAT News in which Kennedy claimed “the CDC has been using corrupt metrics to assess who is vaccinated” to shield what he claimed were “dramatically increased cases and mortalities in the two weeks following the first shot.”

Jan. 28Caroline Kennedy called her cousin a “predator” who has preyed on the parents of sick children, said his financial stake in litigation against a manufacturer of the HPV vaccine poses a conflict of interest and detailed behavior of Kennedy’s youth that included “showing off how he put baby chickens and mice in the blender to feed his hawks,” calling his college dorm room and other places, “often a perverse scene of despair and violence.”

Jan. 28Advancing American Freedom, a conservative group founded by former Vice President Mike Pence, called released a 57-second advertisement a day before Kennedy’s hearing begins, compiling Trump’s past criticisms of his pick, including the now-president calling Kennedy “a radical left plant,” an “extreme liberal” and saying “don’t think you’re going to vote for him and feel good … I’d even take [Joe] Biden over Junior.”

Jan. 27The Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) Committee announced Kennedy would testify before it in a hearing on Thursday, Jan. 30.

Jan. 22Senate Finance Committee Chairman Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) announced Kennedy would go before the committee for his hearing on Jan. 29.

Jan. 22In an ethics form submitted by Kennedy and made public Wednesday, he said he would continue to receive fees related to cases he referred to the law firm Wisner Baum—which is suing Merck over the vaccine that protects against the human papillomavirus, or HPV—that do not involve the U.S. and “in which the United States does not have a direct and substantial interest,” The New York Times reported.

Jan. 22Pence’s group, which is opposing Kennedy in part because of his past views on abortion, announced it’s launching a six-figure ad campaign to oppose his confirmation.

The group believes there is “little reason for confidence” that Kennedy will “have a firm commitment to protect unborn children,” Advancing American Freedom President Tim Chapman and Board Chairman wrote in a recent letter to senators, echoing a previous statement from Pence, who is staunchly anti-abortion.

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and President Donald Trump shake hands during a campaign rally at Desert … [+] Diamond Arena on Aug. 23, 2024.

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Will Rfk Jr. Get Confirmed?

Unclear. Kennedy, like any of President Donald Trump’s nominees, can afford to lose only three Republican votes on the Senate floor assuming all Democrats vote against him, and it’s not clear if he will have the support he needs. Three Republican senators—Susan Collins, R-Maine; Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska; and Mitch McConnell, R-Kentucky—are still considered possible hurdles for Kennedy.

What Is Rfk Jr.’s Background?

The son of late Attorney General Robert F. Kennedy, Kennedy is a longtime environmental lawyer and activist. He formally entered the presidential race in April 2023 as a Democratic candidate challenging Biden for the party’s nomination, before switching to run as an independent in October that year. He dropped out of the race in August and endorsed Trump. Both suggested in subsequent months that Kennedy would be offered a job in the Trump administration, and Trump nominated him to lead HHS in November. Prior to Kennedy’s entrance into the presidential race, he was a leading voice in the anti-vaccine movement, including during the Covid-19 pandemic. He is also married to actress Cheryl Hines.

What Is Rfk Jr.’s Stance On Abortion?

Kennedy supports “the principles laid out in Roe v. Wade,” according to his campaign website, which quotes him saying “abortion is a tragedy, but I don’t trust the government to make these decisions for Americans.” He said in 2023 he supports a 15-week abortion ban, but later retracted the statement. In December, Kennedy met with Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., and Hawley said Kennedy assured him he would “reinstate President Trump’s prolife policies at HHS.” Hawley also said Kennedy told him “he believes there are far too many abortions in the US and that we cannot be the moral leader of the free world with abortion rates so high.”

Does Health And Human Services Oversee Abortion?

As the top federal health agency, HHS could have some role in abortion regulation—even if the legality of abortion is largely determined at the state level since Roe v. Wade was overturned in 2022. For example, under Biden, HHS told hospitals they are required under federal law to provide abortions in emergency situations, even if abortion is illegal in the hospital’s home state. The agency also issued a rule under Biden barring the “disclosure of protected health information related to lawful reproductive health care,” aiming to protect women who cross state lines to access abortion care. Some conservative groups have pushed HHS to undo the Biden-era hospital rules and enforce restrictions on the use of federal funds for abortion.

Why Is Rfk Jr. Controversial Due To A Measles Outbreak In Samoa?

A 2019 trip Kennedy took to the country of Samoa has been linked by some experts to an outbreak in measles that sickened more than 5,700 people and killed 83 in the span of three and a half months. Months before the measles outbreak was declared, Kennedy visited the country to meet with government officials and participated in what Alec Ekeroma, Samoa’s director general of health, told the Guardian was a “significant disinformation campaign” about vaccines. While Samoa’s vaccination rate had been dropping before Kennedy’s visit, Brian Deer, author of “The Doctor Who Fooled the World,” said in a New York Times op-ed that vaccination fears were largely sparked by a documentary made three years earlier by friends of Kennedy.

What Are Rfk Jr.’s Views On Vaccines?

Kennedy has a long history of promoting conspiracies about childhood vaccines, including the theory that the preservative thimerosal—which has been phased out of most modern vaccine formulas—is linked to autism, a claim that’s been thoroughly discredited by medical studies. In a podcast last year with Lex Fridman, Kennedy said “there’s no vaccine that is, you know, safe and effective.” He walked back the statement in a subsequent interview with CNN, calling it a “bad use of words” and has often denied that he’s anti-vaccine. He gained notoriety during the Covid-19 pandemic for fueling conspiracies about the vaccines. He suggested they were related to a “wave of suspicious deaths,” according to The New York Times, and told Louisiana lawmakers it was the “deadliest vaccine ever made.” Medical authorities have said the vaccines do not increase the risk of death from non-Covid causes, and are a safe and effective means of preventing the virus, with serious side-effects extremely rare. Kennedy was the top “superspreader” of misinformation about the Covid-19 vaccine on Twitter, accounting for 13% of daily retweets of low-credibility information, according to a study in the Journal of Medical Internet Research. His Children’s Health Defense nonprofit filed multiple legal actions against pandemic-related public health directives and vaccine mandates, including a petition in 2021 asking the Food and Drug Administration to revoke authorization of the vaccine, The New York Times reported. In the petition, the group advocated for other treatments instead of vaccines, including ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine, despite them having already been deemed ineffective.

What Else Has Kennedy Said About The Covid-19 Pandemic?

In his 2021 book, “The Real Anthony Fauci,” he accused the former National Institutes of Health chief of working with Bill Gates to wage a “a historic coup d’état against Western democracy” by exaggerating the effects of the pandemic to control the media and public health sphere. He also falsely claimed at a July 2023 dinner party that “Covid-19 is targeted to attack Caucasians and Black people” and “the people who are most immune are Ashkenazi Jews and Chinese,” according to video footage of the remarks published by the New York Post.

What Other Health-Related Conspiracies Has Rfk Jr. Promoted?

He’s suggested wireless technology contributes to cancer, alleging WiFi “radiation” causes what he referred to as “cellphone tumors” and “opens your blood brain barrier” to toxins in a June 2024 interview with Joe Rogan. He’s implied that HIV might not cause AIDS, and he’s insinuated a link between school and a rise in the use of antidepressant drugs. There is no credible medical evidence to support the theories.

What Are Rfk Jr.’s Plans For Health And Human Services?

Kennedy has promised that he would allow people to make their own assessments of whether they want to receive vaccines, telling NBC News in November “if vaccines are working for somebody, I’m not going to take them away” and explaining that their choices “ought to be informed by the best information.” In the interview, he promised to “end the chronic disease epidemic,” including by assessing food ingredients. He vowed to eliminate “entire departments” he believes have been ineffective, including nutrition departments at the Food and Drug Administration. Addressing his views on fluoride in water, he said he would warn water districts about their “legal liability” to deliver safe drinking water.

What Are The Sexual Misconduct Allegations Against Rfk Jr.?

A former live-in nanny for the Kennedy family, Eliza Cooney, told multiple outlets last year he groped her and made repeated sexual advances while she was working for him in the 1990s. Kennedy texted her an apology when the story broke, writing, “I have no memory of this incident but I apologize sincerely for anything I ever did that made you feel uncomfortable or anything I did or said that offended you or hurt your feelings,” according to NBC and The Washington Post, which reviewed the text messages. When asked about a Vanity Fair story that revealed the allegation, he called the article a “lot of garbage,” but didn’t address Cooney’s allegation.

Do Any Democratic Senators Support Rfk Jr.?

None have said definitively they’ll vote for him, though Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., hasn’t ruled out the prospect. Sanders told CBS in December he hadn’t decided how he’ll vote, calling Kennedy’s stance that fluoride should be removed from water “extremely dangerous” and his views on vaccines “very wrong,” but telling the network his criticism of food ingredients is “exactly correct.” Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa., is also considered a swing vote on all of Trump’s nominations, as he’s urged his party to stop “freaking out” over every controversial move Trump makes.

Have Any Republican Senators Come Out Against Rfk Jr.?

No. While some, including Cassidy and Murkowski, expressed some tempered skepticism about his initial nomination, he has reportedly retooled his anti-vaccine image in meetings with senators. “He told me he is not anti-vaccine. He is pro-vaccine safety, which strikes me as a rational position to take,” Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, told Politico. While on Capitol Hill last month, Kennedy told reporters he is “all for the polio vaccine,” despite saying in recent years the first polio vaccine might have caused cancers “that killed many, many, many, many, many more people than polio ever did,” and disputing the fact that the vaccine reduced polio cases, The New York Times reported. McConnell, a polio survivor, issued a statement in defense of the polio vaccine when the Times reported in December that a Kennedy confidant helping him make HHS hiring decisions, lawyer Aaron Siri, petitioned the government to revoke the polio vaccine. “Efforts to undermine public confidence in proven cures are not just uninformed — they’re dangerous,” McConnell said. “Anyone seeking the Senate’s consent to serve in the incoming administration would do well to steer clear of even the appearance of association with such efforts.” Neither McConnell nor Cassidy, a physician who told Fox News earlier this month Kennedy is “wrong” about vaccines, have said publicly how they plan to vote. Murkowski also told Politico she was undecided after meeting with Kennedy on Capitol Hill.

What Does Trump Say About Rfk Jr.?

In announcing Kennedy’s nomination, Trump said “HHS will play a big role in helping ensure that everybody will be protected from harmful chemicals, pollutants, pesticides, pharmaceutical products, and food additives that have contributed to the overwhelming Health Crisis in this Country.” In October, Trump said he would let Kennedy “go wild on health . . . food” and “medicines.”

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