The Alex Bregman free agency decision process is at a close, with the third baseman – turned second baseman – choosing the Boston Red Sox on a reported three-year, $120 million deal with opt outs after each of the first two years. The Chicago Cubs were involved to the end, but ultimately came up short.
And I feel ……..
Meh.
Not upset. Not, like, happy or relieved or whatever. But just kinda shrugging. No strong reaction.
That made the Alex Bregman decision a bit unlikely most other Obsessive Watches in my time ’round these parts, when I’m obsessing in large part because I’m desperately hoping the Cubs land the player. In this case, I was obsessing more because of the potential impacts of a signing, and the constant stream of rumors and reporting about the possibilities. If you’ve been paying attention at all the last few weeks, how could you not start obsessing about what Alex Bregman could mean for the Cubs?
But, like I said, him choosing the Red Sox last night has not left me crestfallen, despite all that obsessive rumor tracking.
That is for two main reasons, neither of which I did much to obscure during the process, so I don’t think I’m just talking myself into hindsighting this thing to protect my feelings.
First, I thought it was just so unlikely that Bregman would wind up with the Cubs on the kind of deal they’d be willing to offer. The ultimate deal he took was in the vein of a Cubs offer, but obviously much larger than what we were probably contemplating around here. I just never saw the Cubs actually committing THAT much money to Bregman at THIS moment in time. It didn’t make sense.
Speaking of which, the second reason I’m not bumming today. For as much as I really, really liked the idea of having Bregman on the 2025 Cubs, pretty much everything else about actually signing him was not all that compelling to me. I don’t like the peripheral trends for a smaller guy who is turning 31. I don’t like giving up a second round pick and bonus pool/IFA pool space for what you HOPE will be just a single year of a guy. I don’t at all like the risk of having multiple additional years of a guy on the roster who might block Matt Shaw or James Triantos or anyone else. And I don’t like the possibility that the Cubs mght’ve had to dump Nico Hoerner largely to save money after landing Bregman.
That is all to say, I don’t find myself especially perturbed this morning. The version of a Bregman signing I was hoping for throughout this process was one where I could look at it after it happened and think, “Whoa, I can’t believe they got him for 2025, when it’s going to be especially awesome to have him, and there are pretty much zero other concerns beyond that!”
Was that version of a signing ever realistic? Looks like the answer was no. So I didn’t get my hopes up, and they aren’t dashed today.
As for what Bregman did get, it’s pretty hard to argue with him taking a whopping $40 million AAV deal that gives him two chances to hit the market again, all while having played in a ballpark almost perfectly designed for his offensive skill set. The Cubs’ offer was reportedly for the same guarantee, $120 million, but spread across four years instead of three. Not all that close on its face, though I suppose we can’t say that for sure until/unless we know more about the exact structures – what is the deferred money in the Red Sox deal? what was the payout schedule in each offer? etc., etc. Gut says Bregman did really well for himself, though, and gut also says I would not have loved him saying yes to a Cubs offer that might’ve put them on the hook for four years at a $30 million AAV.
To that point, let me state the obvious: the money only matters if the Cubs actually spend it elsewhere. That includes the rest of this year, either by making a smart addition or two here at the outset of Spring Training or by making a big addition at the Trade Deadline (or both!), as well as the years ahead. The Cubs have a LOT OF MONEY coming off the books the next two years, and now having “missed” on Bregman, they should have so much flexibility to be aggressive in other ways. Maybe that means extending Kyle Tucker and/or Justin Steele. Maybe that means trying to find a contract out there to take on in trade. Maybe that means shocking everyone and going after Vlad Guerrero Jr. next offseason.
Circling back to where I began: yes, I am disappointed this morning that the Cubs won’t have Alex Bregman on the 2025 team, very specifically. That part was very attractive to any Cubs fan paying attention at all. But when you contemplate the entire scope of the situation, given what we know about the budget, it’s harder for me to have a problem with how this shook out.
Now we wait to see if the Cubs were Bregman-or-bust with their remaining dollars, or if they want to re-engage the Padres on someone like Dylan Cease, or if they want to bring back an old friend like David Robertson or Andrew Chafin in free agency. One thing we can suspect is that they might now go and sign Justin Turner for the bench, as has been rumored.
